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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 16-20

Published 05/15/2011, 05:47 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar advance against the yen before trimming gains, as Japan’s economy and fiscal policy minister, Kaoru Yosano, said the yen’s strength resulted from a weaker dollar, not independent gains.

USD/JPY hit 81.33 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since May 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 80.75 by close of trade on Friday, easing up just 0.18% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 80.04, the low of May 6 and short-term resistance at 81.33, last Thursday’s high.

Yosano’s comments added to the view that Japan is less concerned about recent yen strength and further dampened expectations that the country would intervene in currency markets to stem the yen’s gains.

The yen was also boosted by speculation Tokyo Electric Power Company is repatriating funds to pay for damages and compensation in the wake of the nuclear power-plant disaster, following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Earlier in the week, a steep slide in commodities, oil and other high-yielding assets saw the dollar strengthen as traders sought safe harbor from volatile markets.

Looking ahead to next week, Japan is to release data on first quarter gross domestic product, while the Bank of Japan’s policy board is to meet. Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish government data on housing and employment and the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 16

Japan is to publish government data on core machinery orders, a leading indicator of production.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy. The U.S. is also to publish government data on the balance of domestic and foreign investment as well as data on manufacturing activity in New York state.

Tuesday, May 17

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity as well as data on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish government reports on the capacity utilization rate and industrial production.

Wednesday, May 18

Japan is to publish official data on tertiary industry activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. The minutes give in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates. The U.S. is also to publish government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, May 19

Japan is to publish preliminary data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.

The U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as industry data on existing home sales and official data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.

Friday, May 20

The Bank of Japan is to hold a policy meeting. The meeting will be followed by a closely watched press conference.

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