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COMMODITIES-China yuan surprise boosts benchmark oil, copper

Published 06/21/2010, 10:20 AM
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* Oil, industrial metals, grains boosted

* China pledge seen supportive but not game-changing

* Gold latches onto weaker dollar, scores record high

* http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/CN_CMDBLL0610.gif

(Adds quotes, updates prices)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, June 21 (Reuters) - Key commodities including industrial metals and crude oil jumped on Monday after China said it would make its currency more flexible, melting some uncertainty on demand from the resource-consuming giant.

Nervousness over developments elsewhere, with a spotlight on European debt, was still evident and helped propel gold prices to record highs.

Although China made clear on Saturday that a one-off step change in its exchange rate similar to 2005 was not on the cards, analysts expected the yuan to rise slowly, adding to its nearly 20 percent gain since its last revaluation in 2005.

Spot yuan climbed to its highest level against the dollar since its last revaluation in July 2005 in a clear signal that Beijing was sticking to its word.

Analysts said the move had proved a boon to commodity markets as the increased purchasing power of the currency would offset worries about the impact of China's anti-inflationary measures on demand.

"This is all very finely balanced with very small numbers -- perhaps people are saying now there is direction, so instead of being pegged the yuan will crawl up or down but hopefully up," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at fund London and Capital.

After China raised its exchange rate in 2005, by 2.1 percent, commodities rallied for more than a year, although not solely because of Beijing's move.

Last year, the country spent around 607 billion yuan ($89 billion) on importing oil, 343 billion yuan ($50 billion) on iron ore and 206 billion yuan ($30 billion) on copper.

Crude gained 1.9 percent to $78.66 a barrel at 1400 GMT, with China's move seen as raising expectations of higher demand from the world's second largest energy consumer.

With China also consuming more than 30 percent of the global copper market, benchmark London Metal Exchange copper rose 3.3 percent to $6,653 a tonne, but was well off the mid-April's peaks just above $8,000.

"We know China has a voracious appetite for raw materials... Imports will be cheaper," said Robin Bhar, analyst at Credit Agricole.

But while the immediate reaction to China's move has been positive, analysts were cautious on the impact.

"This is not a game-changer and trade tensions will soon return. What's more, even a much bigger move would do nothing to boost the global economy without additional steps to increase demand within China itself," Capital Economics said in a note.

Analysts have talked about a rise in the order of 5-10 percent in the yuan over the year, effectively making imported raw materials less expensive for Chinese buyers.

GOLD SHINES OUT

While most commodity markets including industrial precious metal palladium were swept up by China, gold prices latched onto dollar weakness and continued uncertainty surrounding European sovereign debt, helping prices to strike a record high at $1,264.90 an ounce.

Gold prices have risen more than 15 percent this year as rising concerns over sovereign debt levels in Europe and the prospect of further financial market instability boosted interest in the precious metal as a haven from risk.

Its long-running inverse relationship with the dollar weakened as risk aversion fuelled buying of both assets, but a slide in the U.S. currency on Monday was again adding further impetus to its run higher, analysts said.

"Dollar strength can help gold, and dollar weakness can help gold as well," said Michael Lewis, head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank.

In grain markets, U.S. corn futures hit a three-week high, while soybeans also rose as dealers had already been encouraged by strong demand from China.

China's soy imports in the year to September 2010 are likely to rise to a record 46 million tonnes from an early estimate of 44 million, according to estimates issued by the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre last month. (Additional reporting by Nick Trevethan in Singapore, Barbara Lewis, Jan Harvey and Pratima Desai in London, editing by Anthony Barker)

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