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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: March 15-19

Published 03/14/2010, 09:53 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – The pound rose to a 2-week high against the U.S. dollar last week, as political insecurity in Britain abated and global investors' risk appetite sharpened on upbeat economic reports in Europe and the United States.

GBP/USD hit 1.5217 during European afternoon trade on Friday, cable's highest rate since Feb. 26; the pair subsequently consolidated around 1.5205, gaining 0.95%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.4781, the low of March 1 and a 10-month low, and resistance at 1.5575, the high of Feb. 23.

Earlier this month, markets punished the pound after a poll showed the ruling Labour party could win Britain's upcoming general election but without a clear majority, potentially lacking the power to cut the country's ballooning budget deficit.

Last week, however, a poll showed that the opposition Conservatives were well ahead of Labour, boosting sterling against the dollar. But on Sunday, two new polls pointed again to an indecisive result in Britain's upcoming election, which may hurt the pound next week.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, is set to release the minutes of a key monetary policy meeting, and Britain is due to publish important data on unemployment claims, public sector borrowing and average earnings.

Also next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision on interest rates. The United States is further scheduled to release key data on the housing market, long-term securities, inflation and the manufacturing sector.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect GBP/USD.

Monday, March 15

The week will begin in Britain with the release by Rightmove, an industry group, of its house price index, a leading indicator of the housing market's health. The Bank of England is also set to publish its quarterly bulletin, which includes commentary on market developments and monetary policy decisions.

Later Monday, the U.S. Treasury Department will release its TIC Long-Term Purchases report, which measures the difference in value between foreign holdings of U.S. securities and U.S. holdings of foreign securities. The U.S. will also publish monthly data on industrial production.

Tuesday, March 16

Britain's Department for Communities and Local Government will release its house price index. The Conference Board, an industry group, will later publish its monthly Leading Index on the British economy, which is based on seven key economic indicators.

Meanwhile, the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charles Bean, is set to speak at a conference in London. Investors will scrutinize his comments for clues regarding future monetary policy.

The U.S. will release data on the number of new residential building permits issued and buildings upon which construction was begun during the previous month.

Later Tuesday, the Fed will announce its interest rate decision, which will be accompanied by the release of a statement from the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee.

Wednesday, March 17

Britain's statistics agency will publish monthly data on the U.K. unemployment rate and unemployment claims, a key signal of overall economic health. It will also release a report on average earnings.

The Bank of England will also release the minutes of its recent Monetary Policy Committee's meeting, revealing the votes that members cast in their interest rates decision.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. will publish its monthly producer price index, a key indicator of inflation, and a weekly report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, March 18

Britain will release an important report on borrowing by its public sector, which has both debt and investment implications. The Bank of England will also release data on money supply, the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

An industry group, the Confederation of British Industry, will later publish its index of industrial order expectations, a leading indicator of economic health.

Also Thursday, a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, Andrew Sentance, is due to speak at a meeting in London.

The U.S. will then publish key monthly CPI data and weekly data on initial jobless claims. Later Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will release its manufacturing index, a closely watched measure of manufacturers' views regarding the outlook for their sector.

Friday, March 19

The Bank of England deputy governor, Paul Tucker, is due to speak at a conference in Brussels.

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