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UPDATE 1-Sweden economy speeds into 2011; crown at 10-yr high

Published 01/27/2011, 05:24 AM
Updated 01/27/2011, 05:28 AM

* Jan consumer confidence tops forecasts

* Seasonally adjusted jobless flat, jobs trend positive

* Crown hits fresh 10-year high vs euro

(Adds background, detail, price reaction)

Simon Johnson

STOCKHOLM, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Sweden's economy made a strong start to 2011, data showed on Thursday, fuelling expectations of steeper interest rates hikes and pushing the crown currency to a fresh 10-year high against the euro.

Consumer and business confidence rose from already high levels in January, while jobless figures showed the labour market still on a positive trend.

"Growth looks good for the beginning of 2011 as well," said Torbjorn Isaksson, analyst at Nordea. "Inflation expectations are high and inflation is becoming a growing theme."

Sweden has bounced back swiftly from its worst recession since World War Two, with the government saying output probably grew around 6 percent in 2010 and will likely expand around 4 percent this year.

The central bank raised its key interest rate four times in 2010 as it looked to normalise policy after adopting an ultra-loose monetary stance during the downturn.

It has forecast the repo rate, currently at 1.25 percent, will rise to 2.0 percent by year end, but many analysts believe the Riksbank will have to move faster.

The Swedish crown hit a 10-year high of 8.8280 to the euro after the data, topping a peak hit earlier this month. It was trading at 8.8465 at 0931 GMT.

Yields on 10-year Swedish debt were broadly unchanged, as was the spread over German 10-year bonds.

"We think that very positive news is already priced in to the bond market," said Par Magnusson, analyst at RBS.

The central bank next meets on interest rates on Feb. 14, with its decision published the following day.

Swedish consumer confidence rose to 23.7 points in January from 20.8 points in December, topping the 21.0 points seen by analysts, the National Institute of Economic Research said.

More companies plan to take on extra staff than to lay employees off during the first quarter, the data also showed.

Inflation expectations over the coming 12 months inched up to 2.8 percent in January from 2.7 percent in December.

Price pressure has not been a worry for the Riksbank, which has an inflation target of 2.0 percent, but that may change.

On Wednesday, deputy governor Barbro Wickman-Parak said rapid growth meant "strained resource utilization and a risk of excessive high inflation," could emerge in the longer term.

Separate data showed unemployment rose to 7.4 percent in December from 7.1 percent the previous month, marginally higher than the 7.3 percent seen in a Reuters poll of analysts though the number of employed .

Seasonally adjusted unemployment was flat at 7.8 percent compared with November and down from 8.9 percent a year ago.

"(The) job survey was fairly market neutral ... but it confirms the picture of a continued improvement on the job market," said Swedbank's Knut Hallberg.

Producer prices rose 2.2 percent month-on-month and were up 4.3 percent on the year, the statistics office said.

(Editing by John Stonestreet)

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