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Turkish March PMI eases to 5-month low of 56.1

Published 04/01/2011, 03:01 AM
Updated 04/01/2011, 03:04 AM

ISTANBUL, April 1 (Reuters) - Turkey's manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in five months in March as growth in new orders slowed, partly due to unrest in the Middle East, while input price acceleration eased, a survey showed on Friday.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Turkey fell to 56.1 points in March from a record high of 58.5 in February -- its weakest level since last October, but still well above the 50 point mark separating growth from contraction. The input price index weakened to 77.4 points from a record high of 79.5 points, data firm Markit reported. "The slight slowdown in the rate of expansion was caused by output and new orders, both of which also expanded at slightly lower, but still markedly strong rates. There was a solid slowdown in new export order growth, possibly reflective of uncertainties in the Middle East & North Africa region," said Murat Ulgen, chief economist for Turkey at HSBC.

North Africa and the Middle East have become increasingly important markets for Turkish exports, particularly amid fragile euro zone growth. The Arab world accounted for 22 percent of Turkish exports in 2010.

The data will send mixed messages to the central bank, which is battling to keep credit growth in Turkey to 20-25 percent this year after loans last year rose 34 percent, fuelling a domestic demand boom which sent GDP up 8.9 percent.

Slower manufacturing growth may signal that credit growth is finally calming after the central bank raised banks' required reserve ratios in December and January and made another surprise hike last week.

But persistent price acceleration is keeping the bank under pressure to convince the markets it has inflation in hand, particularly given its reluctance to raise interest rates.

"While input and output prices rose at slower rates than in February, they both continued to signal pipeline inflationary pressures in the manufacturing industry," Ulgen said.

Turkey's consumer inflation fell to a 41-year low in February of 4.16 percent but producer price inflation of 10.87 percent fanned concern the bank may fall behind the curve if it fails to ditch its new policy mix and raise its policy rate from a record low of 6.25 percent.

Central bank governor Yilmaz said last week the bank's measures had been sufficient.

But much stronger than expected fourth-quarter GDP again raised fears of economic overheating.

According to the PMI data, Turkey's manufacturing sector has now seen monthly growth since May 2009, following 18 months of contraction.

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