* Polls show centre-right govt set for re-election
* Economy recovering from 14 percent fall in 2009
* Estonia joined euro zone in January
By David Mardiste
TALLINN, March 4 (Reuters) - Estonia's centre-right coalition has a good chance of being re-elected on Sunday. keeping the new euro zone member on a path of fiscal conservatism in the debt-ridden single currency area.
An opinion poll on Thursday showed the Reform Party of Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and its partner Pro Patria and Res Republica Union would win a combined 54 percent of the vote, which would give them a majority in the 101-seat parliament.
A poll on Tuesday was less clear-cut, showing Ansip may need to negotiate with a third party, possibly the centre-left Social Democrats, to secure a majority.
However, political analysts believe the country of 1.3 million people will stick to its policies of keeping a tight rein on finances, which allowed it in January to become the 17th country to adopt the euro, with the lowest debt burden in the European Union.
"As indicated by several polls our base-line scenario is for a similar coalition to the existing one, so we are not expecting any significant changes to political or economic policy," said Annika Lindblad, emerging market analyst at Nordea Bank.
The Centre Party, the main opposition grouping, has been hit by allegations it asked for funding from Russia, Estonia's huge neighbour which is traditionally regarded with distrust. The party has denied the allegations.
The Social Democrats entered the government with Ansip after the last election in 2007, but that coalition split.
DROP IN OUTPUT
Ansip's government was in a minority for a while, but defections from smaller parties eventually gave it 51 seats.
Thursday's opinion poll, carried out by TNS Emor and reported in the media, gave Ansip's Reform Party 29 percent support and Pro Patria/Res Publica 25 percent.
A Turu-uuringute poll commissioned by the newspaper Postimees and issued on Tuesday, gave the ruling coalition 35 percent backing, leaving it needing support elsewhere for a majority, which could come from the Social Democrats.
Estonia suffered a drop of 14 percent in economic output during the 2009 recession, the third worst in the EU after fellow Baltic states Latvia and Lithuania.
The government had to cut spending to keep its budget deficit within euro-zone limits to adopt the currency.
Estonia remains one of the poorest countries in the EU, which it entered in 2004, the same year it joined NATO.
Its fiscal shape is sound -- the European Commission has forecast a total public sector budget deficit of 1.6 percent of output for 2011, in line with the euro area average.
State debt, forecast at 9.5 percent of output for this year, will be by far the lowest in the euro zone and well below the average 86.5 percent of gross domestic product. The government has pledged to get the budget back in balance by 2014.
Estonians can vote via the Internet until March 2 and then on election day at polling stations between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m. (0700 and 1800 GMT). (Editing by Andrew Dobbie)