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Q+A-Impact of Merkel's 80 bln euro budget cut plan

Published 06/08/2010, 09:23 AM
Updated 06/08/2010, 09:27 AM

By Madeline Chambers

BERLIN, June 8 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel unveiled plans for 80 billion euros in budget cuts over the next four years on Monday, a package of measures she hopes will help revive her political fortunes.

However, conservative Merkel, who rules in a centre-right coalition with the pro-business Free Democrats, has to ensure parliament, unions and voters accept the package.

For a story on the package, please double click on and for a factbox, on. For an article by a Reuters columnist, please double click on.

Here are some questions and answers about the package and where it leaves Merkel.

DO THE FIGURES ADD UP?

Economists welcomed the package but say the headline figure is exaggerated. Merkel may have to water down several measures, some of which had been planned already, to get them through.

Economists put the actual savings at between 27 billion euros and 33 billion euros through 2014.

But even that will help lower Germany's deficit which was set to exceed 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, say economists. While far lower than some other euro zone countries' deficits, that still tops the official EU cap.

It is unclear whether the package will ensure Germany's structural deficit of no more than 0.35 percent of GDP by 2016, as required in a new "debt brake" law.

Although no-one is predicting a debt crisis in Germany, economists say her package should stave off any such threat.

DOES IT RISK CHOKING OFF RECOVERY?

Most economists were pleased the package focused on spending cuts rather than tax rises which, they say, would have posed a greater risk to growth.

Andreas Rees of Unicredit said the package might shave about 0.25 percentage points off 2011 growth and between 0.5 percentage points and 0.75 percentage points through 2014.

In her decision to avoid taxes that would burden private consumption, Merkel acknowledged she was partly responding to international pressure to encourage Germans to spend more and help boost the euro zone economy rather than rely on exports.

Economists argue the bigger threat to the German recovery is belt-tightening from other euro zone countries which could hit exports in coming years.

WHAT RESISTANCE WILL IT HIT?

* Unions have promised stiff resistance. The DGB union umbrella federation, has promised action and civil service unions are likely to protest due to plans to cut 15,000 jobs by 2014. Industrial action looks likely but at this stage there is little sign that it will ignite broad public anger.

* Industry: Merkel is also likely to face stiff resistance from airlines and energy companies due to targeted tax rises in those sectors but it looks unlikely that firms will be able to get out of the planned taxes altogether.

* German voters, who tend to be thrifty due to memories of hyperinflation and soaring unemployment in the 1920s, tend to be more worried about inflation and job security than about saving. To that extent, the package might not be as unpopular among the general population as it would be in some other countries.

WILL IT PASS POLITICAL HURDLES?

The package is likely to get through the Bundestag lower house as Merkel's centre-right coalition has a clear majority.

However, opposition parties have vowed to fight the package, which they say is unfair because it targets welfare spending and especially unemployment benefits.

A vote in the Bundesrat upper house could be more troublesome after Merkel's coalition was robbed of its majority there in a regional election last month. As Merkel now has to rely on opposition party support to pass laws, she may have to make concessions, especially on social security cuts.

IS THE PACKAGE ENOUGH TO BOOST MERKEL?

No -- not on its own.

If she gets her package through parliament largely unscathed, the German recovery continues and the euro zone debt crisis eases, both her standing within her party and her popularity among voters is likely to bounce back somewhat.

But she still faces some major hurdles.

* On June 30, a special assembly will vote for a new German president after the shock resignation of Horst Koehler last week. A battle between her conservative candidate, Christian Wulff, and the opposition choice, Joachim Gauck -- a charismatic anti-communist activist from eastern Germany -- is looming. The special assembly is unpredictable due to its composition -- it includes all Bundestag lower house lawmakers plus an equal number of delegates appointed by members of the upper house.

Some German media suggest a failure to get Wulff elected would be a body blow to Merkel.

* Her coalition is increasingly fractious and Merkel needs to ensure it doesn't fall apart. FDP members are growing angry about the government's direction. Merkel last month announced she was ditching planned tax cuts -- the FDP's main election promise -- due to the budget situation.

Last week the mood in the coalition soured further after Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) scuppered the FDP health minister's plans for heath reform.

The risk for Merkel is that some in the FDP will rebel. Some lawmakers have already said they may back Gauck for president. (Editing by Jon Boyle)

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