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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: January 17-21

Published 01/16/2011, 09:48 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com – The week ending January 14 saw the Canadian dollar advance against its U.S. counterpart for a fourth consecutive week, rising to a 31-month high before paring gains after China tightened monetary policy.

USD/CAD hit 0.9847 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since May 29, 2008; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9907 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.23% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9823, the low of May 29, 2008, and resistance at 0.9983, the high of January 10.

On Friday, the loonie fell to the lowest level since January 10 after the People’s Bank of China announced that it lifted lenders’ reserve requirements for the fourth time in two months in an effort to curb inflation and cool its rapidly growing economy.

The announcement saw growth-linked currencies, such as the Canadian dollar turn lower as commodity prices retreated.

Earlier in the week, the Canadian dollar advanced as crude oil prices, the nation’s largest export hovered near a 27-month high and as risk appetite sharpened after strong debt auctions by Portugal, Spain and Italy.  

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release key data on the housing sector, with reports on building permits, housing starts and existing home sales. The country is also to publish data on manufacturing activity and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its monetary policy report.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 17

In the U.S., markets will remain closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish a report on foreign investment, which is linked to currency demand.

Tuesday, January 18

The U.S. is to publish official data on manufacturing activity in New York State as well as a report on the balance of domestic and foreign investment.

Also Tuesday, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate.

Wednesday, January 19

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as a report on housing starts, an important indicator of current activity in the sector.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is to release its monetary policy report, which gives insights into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation. The report is usually followed by a closely watched press conference to discuss its contents. Also Wednesday, Canada is to publish official data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Thursday, January 20

The U.S. is to publish its key weekly report on jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish official data on existing home sales, manufacturing activity in Philadelphia as well as a report on crude oil inventories.

The report on crude oil inventories can be a big market mover for the loonie, as Canada is the largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S.

Meanwhile, Canada is to publish official data on wholesale sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending, as well as an index of leading economic indicators, designed to forecast the direction of the economy.

Friday, January 21

Canada is to end the week with a report on retail sales, a primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.


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