BANGALORE, June 3 (Reuters) - The euro, sterling and yen will be less volatile in June after a month of turmoil in the currency markets, according to calculations derived from the monthly Reuters foreign exchange poll.
The conclusion is based on the standard deviation of forecasts in the June currency survey, coupled with the actual levels of one-month annualised volatility seen last month.
The unexpected move by the German government to ban naked short-selling as a response to the euro zone debt crisis pressured the euro during May.
This saw the euro trade in a volatile range, going as low as 1.214 and rising to a high of over 1.33 in May, the widest trading range since March 2009. Monthly annualised volatility spiked to 17.7 percent, the highest since January 2009.
The latest Reuters foreign exchange poll suggests that will dip to 13.1 percent in June.
"The evolution of the crisis has not only been a near-term negative for the euro, but signals poorly for its medium and longer-term future," said Mengxian Jiao, currency strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Dollar/yen traded in a wide range between 88.0 and just below 95.0 as worries over contagion from Greece's debt crisis triggered investor risk aversion around the globe.
"The (yen) is likely to remain choppy in the immediate period ahead on remaining risk aversion and then enter a gradual downward trend from mid-year," said Jiao.
The poll suggested monthly annualised volatility of 11.9 percent for dollar/yen, lower than the 18.7 percent actual volatility seen last month.
As concerns over the outcome of the UK general elections were laid to rest in May with the formation of a coalition government, strategists felt fiscal troubles in Britain could pull the pound lower.
"The latest strength in sterling should be short-lived," said Neils Christensen, chief foreign exchange analyst at Nordea. "The serious budget problems in the UK are bound to put a damper on sustained rise of sterling," he added.
For sterling against the dollar, volatility was seen falling to 9.4 percent this month from an actual 14.0 percent in May.
Analysts say the divergence of forecasts in Reuters currency polls offers a leading indicator of exchange rate volatility in the following month.
Statistical analysis suggests that the more analysts' forecasts diverge for a currency pair, the higher the actual one-month annualised volatility is likely to be in that currency in the following month.
Estimates of future monthly annualised volatility are used to calculate the value of currency options, which give investors the right to buy or sell a currency at a fixed price in the future.
Generally, as a measure of financial risk, the wider the expected trading range for a currency the higher the cost of purchasing an option to trade it. PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN EXPECTED ONE-MONTH ANNUALISED VOLATILITY FOR JUNE 2010 (FROM MAY POLL) --------------------------------------------------------------- ONE MONTH SPREAD --------------------------------------------------------------- CURRENCY JUN STD MAY STD % CHANGE -------- ------- ------- -------- GBP 0.031 0.025 24 EUR 0.027 0.019 42 JPY 1.6 1.7 -6 --------------------------------------------------------------- TWELVE MONTH SPREAD --------------------------------------------------------------- CURRENCY JUN STD MAY STD % CHANGE -------- ------- ------- -------- GBP 0.097 0.108 -10 EUR 0.106 0.086 23 JPY 6.9 6.1 13 --------------------------------------------------------------- (Reporting by Kevin Kumar; Editing by Toby Chopra)