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INTERVIEW-UPDATE 1-No growth target at G20:Japan ex-MOF official

Published 11/04/2009, 06:33 AM
Updated 11/04/2009, 06:43 AM

* G20 unlikely to talk much about dollar weakness - Watanabe

* No other currency than dlr can be world reserve currency

* Coordination needed when major economies raise rates

(Adds comments, details)

By Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Group of 20 financial leaders are unlikely to set national growth goals at their weekend meeting in Scotland even as they seek to firm up a plan to rebalance the world economy, a former Japanese currency tsar said on Wednesday.

Hiroshi Watanabe, who recently joined the Asian regional advisory board at the International Monetary Fund, said G20 members will pursue ways to mend a scar left by the global recession and prevent it from happening again.

But that does not mean that each country should come up with specific growth targets, he said.

"I haven't heard up till today they will come up with anything with specific numbers," said Watanabe, who served as vice finance minister for international affairs for three years to July 2007.

Governments are striving to push their economies back above their potential growth rates, but committing to a numerical growth target would be difficult because doing so would bind each country's economic policies, said Watanabe, who still has close contacts with Japanese policymakers.

Watanabe also said the Group of 20 major economies was unlikely to talk much about the dollar's weakness, a topic he said is better suited for debate among the G7 rich nations and China.

But he added that the dollar will remain a key global currency as there is no other unit to replace it as a reserve currency.

"The dollar itself has passed its peak," Watanabe said.

"But it is certain that we are not in a situation where other currencies can replace the dollar or where a virtual currency like SDRs (the IMF's Special Drawing Rights) can play its role."

Watanabe, who now heads the state-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation, said he expects the dollar to move around 90 to 95 yen in the coming six months.

Currency rates are unlikely to be a major topic at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers on Friday and Saturday, but the issue may be discussed in relation to rebalancing the world economy, sources from the group say.

Watanabe said world economies may be ready to wind up crisis measures to provide ample liquidity to financial markets towards next year, but it will take time for many economies to implement exit strategies in fiscal and monetary policies given a fragile economic recovery seen ahead.

"Interest rates are at near zero in many countries and it will take more time before raising them and when they do they will need a collaboration in a narrow sense," he said. (Additional reporting by Sumio Ito and Kei Okamura; editing by Stephen Nisbet)

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