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FOREX-Sterling gets little reprieve; RBA rate decision eyed

Published 03/01/2010, 08:03 PM
Updated 03/01/2010, 08:12 PM

* Political uncertainty seen continuing to weigh on sterling

* Euro still hobbled by uncertainty over Greece bailout

* Aussie market awaits RBA rate decision

By Masayuki Kitano

TOKYO, March 2 (Reuters) - Sterling dipped on Tuesday and was seen likely to stay weak after tumbling to a 10-month low the previous day, while the euro's outlook remained clouded by uncertainty over a bailout for debt-strapped Greece.

The Australian dollar dropped slightly ahead of a central bank rate decision later on Tuesday, with markets pricing in a roughly 65 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate rise to 4.0 pct.

The outlook for the sterling and the euro is unlikely to improve immediately given the various factors working against them, a trader for a European bank said.

"Overall, there is still likely to be selling pressure against the European currencies," he continued.

"One of the factors has to do with politics and that is not something that will disappear in a day or two, so sterling may remain under selling pressure."

Sterling took a dive on Monday, hurt by factors such as worries that a UK election due in months could give neither the opposition Conservatives nor the ruling Labour Party a parliamentary majority.

Such an outcome could hinder a new government from effectively dealing with bringing down the UK budget deficit.

Sterling has also been under pressure after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said recently that the central bank may still have to restart its asset-buying programme if the economic outlook worsens.

Sterling dipped 0.1 percent from late U.S. trading on Monday to $1.4976.

On Monday, it fell by as much as 4 cents at one point to a 10-month low of $1.4781, and although it later trimmed some losses, still finished the day down 1.6 percent for its biggest one-day percentage fall in more than four months.

The euro held steady at $1.3557, not too far from a nine-month low of $1.3443 hit on trading platform EBS in February.

The euro's outlook will turn bearish on weekly Ichimoku charts if it closes the week below the bottom of the cloud, which now lies near $1.3600. That could open the way for a fall down towards $1.3300, where support lies on monthly Ichimoku charts.

The euro fell on Monday despite speculation that a visit to Athens by EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn and European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark could move EU governments closer to a deal to help Greece.

The European Union urged Greece on Monday to agree additional austerity measures within days to tackle its fiscal crisis and promised to help Athens overcome its debt problems.

The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $0.9000. With investors bracing for the interest rate decision, there was limited reaction to a mixed batch of data showing a bigger-than- expected rise in retail sales in January and a surprise fall in building approvals.

Of the 18 economists polled by Reuters last week, 12 expected Australia's central bank to lift its cash rate 25 basis points to 4.0 percent on Tuesday. Six think it will pause for the second straight month.

"We expect the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged. If that turns out to be the case, the Australian dollar may initially be sold off," said Junya Tanase, senior foreign exchange strategist for J.P.Morgan Chase Bank.

After the initial reaction, the Australian dollar is likely to take cues from moves in equities markets, Tanase said, adding that if stocks markets rise the Asutralian dollar could rebound after any initial fall. (Additional reporting by Yoshiko Mori; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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