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FOREX-Euro slips from multi-month highs; hikes priced in

Published 04/04/2011, 05:55 AM
Updated 04/04/2011, 06:00 AM
EUR/USD
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* Euro hits 5-mth high of $1.4269, slips back to $1.4194

* Single currency eases from 11-mth high of 120.07 yen

* Diverging rate expectations may be fully priced

* Speculative long positioning leaves euro vulnerable

(Adds detail, updates prices)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - The euro slipped back from 11-month highs against the yen on Monday and a five-month peak against the dollar, as analysts said expectations for higher euro zone interest rates were becoming priced in.

The Bank of Japan is likely to downgrade its economic assessment on Wednesday, while comments from a Federal Reserve official on Friday highlighted uncertainty over the need to tighten monetary policy in the United States.

Markets expect the European Central Bank to react to rising inflationary pressures in the euro zone by raising interest rates from a record low on Thursday, with a further two 25 basis point hikes factored in by year-end.

The euro rose to $1.4269 against the dollar in Asian trade but stalled ahead of its November 2010 high, seen as resistance around $1.4281. It slipped back to $1.4194 in Europe, down around 0.2 percent for the day.

"I think the euro is close to putting in a top now as the monetary policy divergence story is almost fully priced," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM-UFJ.

Technical analysts also highlighted trendline resistance drawn from the euro's record high struck in July 2008 coming in around $1.4300.

"The move wider in EUR/USD rate differentials seems to have lost some of its impetus in the run up to the ECB rate decision indicating that some euro positives are already priced in by the market." said Valentin Marinov, currency analyst at CitiFX in a note.

Latest speculative positioning data suggests the euro could be ripe for a pull-back. Longs in the single currency continued to bulk up, rising to 56,630 from the previous week's 48,353.

The euro briefly popped above 120 yen for the first time since May 2010 but retreated to 119.40, down 0.2 percent from late U.S. trade on Friday.

"The yen is likely to continue to gradually weaken but we see more upside for dollar/yen rather than euro/yen. We think the market is underestimating U.S. rate hike expectations," said Hardman at BTM-UFJ.

One of the Federal Reserve's most powerful policymakers on Friday went against an increasingly hawkish tone from some other Fed officials worried about inflation, saying he saw no need for the central bank to reverse course.

William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said the Fed was "still very far away" from achieving its mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability, even though the economy is on a firmer footing.

The dollar was slightly firmer versus a currency basket on Monday, trading up 0.1 percent at 75.929. Better-than-expected U.S. employment data on Friday, hinting at a stronger economic recovery and the possibility for higher U.S. interest rates, leant the greenback some support.

AUSSIE OFF HIGHS

The dollar was flat around 83.95 yen. It had hit a six-month high of 84.735 yen on Friday on trading platform EBS, stalling ahead of an option barrier at 84.75. Traders reported good interest to sell dollars into the 85.00 area.

The dollar was up around 11 percent from its post-World War Two record low of 76.25 yen struck in March.

It rose above its 200-day moving average at 83.57 last week, in a sign that its downtrend against the yen may have run its course, while a potential upside target lies at its mid-September high of 85.94 yen.

The yen hovered near recent lows on the crosses, particularly against higher yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.

The Aussie reached highs not seen since early May 2010 at 87.69 yen, and was last at 87.12. It has gained roughly 16 percent from a low hit on March 17.

The Aussie hit a fresh 29-year high against the greenback in the Asian session of $1.0422. It slipped back to trade at 1.0370 in European dealing, down 0.2 percent on the day. (Editing by Toby Chopra)

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