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FOREX-Euro rises as Ireland optimism fuels speculative rally

Published 11/18/2010, 08:10 AM
Updated 11/18/2010, 08:11 AM
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SI
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* Euro rises on view Irish debt crisis may be easing

* Rally seen as driven by speculators, event risk looms

* Spain bond auction goes smoothly but yields higher

* Stocks, higher-yielding currencies gain

(Adds quote, updates prices)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The euro rallied on Thursday as optimism that Ireland's debt crisis may be easing fuelled speculative buying, but the move was seen as undermined by peripheral risks elsewhere and position-squaring into the year-end.

The dollar was broadly softer after subdued U.S. inflation data on Wednesday reinforced the U.S. Federal Reserve's case for monetary easing.

"We view this as a short-term speculative rally in the euro, driven by weaker U.S. CPI and some optimism for Ireland as the IMF and EU arrive in Dublin for talks," said Manuel Oliveri, currency analyst at UBS in Zurich.

"There are other factors at play for the dollar. Year-end flows should be supportive as profit-taking versus emerging currencies fuels repatriation," he said.

Uncertainty about the Irish crisis, which has also supported the dollar recently, looked to be loosening its grip on markets after Dublin agreed to work with a European Union-International Monetary Fund mission on urgent steps to shore up its shattered banking sector.

The cost of insuring Irish debt against default fell as investors grew increasingly confident that a deal would be reached.

The euro hit a session high of $1.3664 to the dollar. As of 1225 GMT, it was up 0.9 percent on the day at $1.3645. The single currency had hit a seven-week low of $1.3446 on Tuesday.

Traders said stop-losses were triggered on the break of Ichimoku resistance at $1.3630. The next resistance was seen at $1.3765, the 38.2 percent retracement of this month's fall.

"IMF involvement points powerfully towards funding support for Ireland, probably to ring-fence the banks, which reduces risks to some extent," said Ray Farris, currency strategist at Credit Suisse.

"But this is not a silver bullet for Ireland. The Irish budget and election are its next event risks," he said.

The euro is still down some 5 percent from a 10-month high above $1.4280 set on Nov. 4.

Some analysts saying that even if there a quick resolution is reached over Ireland, players would fret about other peripheral euro zone economies and their debt levels, with Portugal thought to be in the market's sights.

A Spanish bond auction passed relatively smoothly, as it sold 3.7 billion euros worth of 10 and 30-year bonds, albeit at higher yields. Against the yen, the euro rose 1.0 percent to 113.82 yen.

RISK-ON

Investors' risk appetite drove U.S. stock futures up 1.1 percent, and higher-yielding currencies also gained. The Australian dollar rose 1 percent to $0.9900, up from this week's low around $0.9726.

"It is a risk-on environment today, and we are seeing an outperformance of riskier assets," said Christian Lawrence, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

Subsequently, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies, dropped 0.8 percent to 78.438, off Tuesday's seven-week high of 79.461.

Data on Wednesday showed U.S. core consumer inflation rose 0.6 percent from a year ago, the smallest increase since records started in 1957 and backing up the case for the Fed to deliver all of its $600 billion of quantitative easing.

Traders also say hedge funds are likely to close dollar short positions ahead of their book-closing later in the year.

The dollar, which gained 4 percent from a 15-year low to a high of 83.60 yen this month, held at 83.20 yen. (Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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