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FOREX-Euro holds gains ahead of U.S. jobs data

Published 03/04/2011, 04:37 AM
Updated 03/04/2011, 04:40 AM

* Euro holds gains after rallying on ECB rate rise view

* Dollar on back foot, investors await US payrolls

* Analysts: UST yields need to rise on data to boost USD

(Adds comments, updates throughout; previous SYDNEY/SINGAPORE)

By Naomi Tajitsu

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - The euro held near a four-month high against the dollar on Friday on expectations euro zone interest rates may rise next month, while investors waited to see if an expected improvement in U.S. jobs data would boost the U.S. currency.

The euro took a breather after surging as high as $1.3976 the previous day, when European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet stunned investors by saying a rate rise in April was a possibility in its drive to fight inflation risks.

Analysts said the euro was poised for more near-term gains as the ECB's announcement, fortifying expectations the ECB will raise rates well before the U.S. Federal Reserve, had widened the gap between euro zone and U.S. government bond yields.

Some said the market would take a cue from U.S. yields to determine the dollar's move on U.S. payrolls due at 1330 GMT. The central forecast in a Reuters poll is for 185,000 new jobs to have been added to the economy last month, after an addition of 36,000 in January.

"We should see a better non-farm payrolls figure, but if U.S. yields don't rise, it won't help the dollar," said Marcus Hettinger, global FX strategist at Credit Suisse in Zurich.

"Interest rate differentials ... are playing in favour for the euro, so we could see a break above $1.40 any time now."

ECB rate rise speculation has expanded the yield spread between two-year German and U.S. government debt, the most sensitive maturity to official rate moves, to around 1.0 percent, its widest since January 2009.

Euro interest rate swaps soared across the curve with the two-year rate hitting around 2.33 percent, highs not seen since early 2009.

Many in the market expected rate rise speculation to push the euro higher, although some analysts pointed out the dangers of tightening policy when the economies of some euro zone countries are suffering from debt problems.

In early European trade, the euro was flat on the day at $1.3950. The euro edged up to a session high of $1.3969, but offers above the psychologically key $1.40 were seen keeping a lid on near-term gains.

It hovered near its 200-week moving average around $1.3957. A weekly close above that would pave the way for a move higher, although some near-term resistance was seen around $1.3980, the 78.6 percent retracement of the euro's down move from November.

"We think the euro will remain strong in the next week or two, possibly even testing ... highs of $1.4280," said Christopher Gothard, head of FX for Brown Brothers Harriman in Hong Kong, referring to the euro's next major peak on charts, its early November high of $1.4283.

The euro held gains against sterling and the yen, after the single currency rallied to a four-month high against the Japanese currency of 115.18 yen on EBS on Thursday.

But the shared currency slipped 0.3 percent on the day to 1.2967 Swiss francs, which rallied after Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan said rates in the country will have to rise in the medium term.

The dollar traded flat at 82.45 yen, and was at 76.529 against a currency basket, little changed on the day and hovering near 76.385 hit on Thursday, its weakest since early November.

While some in the market said a post-payrolls jump in U.S. Treasury yields may provide a dollar reprieve, analysts said a disappointing reading could fan worries about the outlook for the U.S. labour market.

Such concerns could pick up given uncertainty about how the recent surge in oil prices may affect the U.S. economy and companies. (Additional reporting by Asia Forex Team; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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