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FOREX-Euro eases from multi-month peak; hikes priced in

Published 04/04/2011, 07:47 AM
Updated 04/04/2011, 07:52 AM
EUR/USD
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* Euro hits 5-mth high of $1.4269, then slips back

* Single currency eases from 11-mth high of 120.07 yen

* ECB rate hike expectations may be fully priced

(Adds detail, updates prices)

By Neal Armstrong

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - The euro slipped back from 11-month highs against the yen on Monday and a five-month peak against the dollar, as analysts said expectations for higher euro zone interest rates were mostly priced in.

Bids from Asian central banks and other investors are likely to offer solid support to the euro at $1.4190 against the dollar with stops through to below $1.4150 also cited by traders.

Analysts said there were plenty of event risks this week, including a number of central bank rate decisions in the developed world and a slew of speakers from the U.S. Federal Reserve. That could see investors adopt a wait and see stance.

The Bank of Japan is likely to downgrade its economic assessment and keep policy ultra-loose on Wednesday, while comments from a senior Federal Reserve official on Friday highlighted divergence and uncertainty over the need to tighten monetary policy in the United States.

Markets expect the European Central Bank to react to rising inflationary pressures in the euro zone by raising interest rates from a record low on Thursday, with a further two 25 basis point hikes factored in by year-end.

The euro rose to $1.4269 in Asian trade but stalled ahead of its November 2010 high, seen as resistance around $1.4281. It was last at $1.4227, flat for the day.

"I think the euro is close to putting in a top now as the monetary policy divergence story is almost fully priced," said Lee Hardman, currency strategist at BTM-UFJ.

Technical analysts also highlighted trendline resistance drawn from the euro's record high struck in July 2008 coming in around $1.4300.

"The move wider in EUR/USD rate differentials seems to have lost some of its impetus in the run up to the ECB rate decision indicating that some euro positives are already priced in by the market," said Valentin Marinov, analyst at CitiFX in a note.

Latest speculative positioning data suggests the euro could be due for a pull-back. Longs in the single currency rose to 56,630 from the previous week's 48,353.

The euro briefly popped above 120 yen for the first time since May 2010 but retreated to 119.40, down 0.2 percent from late U.S. trade on Friday.

"The yen is likely to continue to gradually weaken but we see more upside for dollar/yen rather than euro/yen. We think the market is underestimating U.S. rate hike expectations," said Hardman at BTM-UFJ.

One of the Federal Reserve's most powerful policymakers, William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, on Friday went against an increasingly hawkish tone from some other Fed officials worried about inflation, saying he saw no need for the central bank to reverse course.

FED POLICY DIVERGENCE

Still, the dollar was slightly firmer versus a currency basket on Monday, trading up 0.1 percent at 75.91. Better-than-expected U.S. employment data on Friday, hinting at a stronger recovery and the possibility for higher U.S. rates, leant the greenback some support.

The dollar was flat around 84.06 yen. It had hit a six-month high of 84.735 yen on Friday on trading platform EBS, stalling ahead of an option barrier at 84.75. Traders reported good interest to sell dollars into the 85.00 area.

It rose above its 200-day moving average at 83.57 last week, in a sign that its downtrend against the yen may have run its course.

The pair will be sensitive to a host of Fed speakers who are due to speak later on Monday, including Fed chief Ben Bernanke. Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart and Chicago Fed chief Charles Evans are also scheduled to speak.

Last week, hawkish comments from a number of Fed policymakers helped the dollar rebound on the yen, before it ran out of steam following dovish comments from Dudley.

"From (James) Bullard to Dudley, the policy flow of the past week has reflected a growing divergence in the degree of confidence surrounding the economy's outlook, which is not unusual for turning points in the Fed's cycle," said Lena Komileva, head of G-10 currency strategy at Brown Brothers.

The yen hovered near recent lows on the crosses, particularly against higher yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.

The Aussie hit a fresh 29-year high against the greenback in the Asian session of $1.0422. It slipped back to trade at 1.0370 in European dealing, down 0.2 percent on the day.

(additional reporting by Anirban Nag)

(Editing by Toby Chopra)

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