* Yen seen broadly stable vs dollar in short term, less volatile
* Yen to weaken only gradually against the euro
* Swiss franc seen little changed in short-term
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen defied nearly every forecaster in staging a stomach-churning surge then subsequent retreat last month, leaving strategists to now predict small moves in the near-term as volatility subsides.
The latest monthly Reuters poll has the yen trading at 98 to the dollar in a month, slightly stronger than where it was trading on Wednesday. They predicted dollar/yen at the same level in three months and slightly higher at 99 again in six, rising to 103 in 12 months.
The consensus forecasts, based on the views of nearly 60 strategists at most of the world's top foreign exchange dealing firms, were taken late last week and early this week, before Barack Obama was elected the 44th U.S. President on Nov. 4.
The huge rally in the yen to just below 91 against the dollar, driven by an unprecedented wave of deleveraging and unwinding of yen carry trades in late October as the global financial crisis raged, took nearly all forecasters by surprise.
Many speculators in the foreign exchange market were forced to unwind their positions resulting in huge losses especially in places where bets against the U.S. dollar were most popular. That snapback has also made them too wary of predicting much of a yen weakening against the dollar.
"Risk aversion is likely to remain relatively high over coming months pointing to further upside for the yen," said Mitul Kotecha, global head of foreign exchange at Calyon, and the most consistently accurate forecaster in 2007.
Reuters polls have consistently showed an overall appetite among dealers and forecasters for a gradual rise in the U.S. dollar against the yen for most of this year when in fact the opposite has happened.
The number of forecasts for dollar/yen at or above 110 in the short- and longer-term was rising just two months ago and it has traded nowhere near there.
In September, before the full force of the global financial crisis swept through currency, bond, commodity and stock markets, 42 of 64 strategists expected the dollar to rise to or above 110 yen in the next 12 months, up from 27 of 60 in August.
In the November survey, that shrank to 11 as the yen moved in the opposite direction for all of the previous month. The range of forecasts at the 12-month horizon -- between 90 and 120.9 -- is typically wide.
Forecasters expected very little retreat against the euro. Cross rates calculated by Reuters show euro/yen at 124.1 in one month, 127.8 in six months, and 132.0 in a year, compared with 166.6, 161 and 156.9 in the August survey.
Indeed, while just a few months ago there were still a handful of forecasters predicting euro/yen at 170 or higher in 12 months. Now the highest forecast is for 159.6.
Yen volatility for September is expected to ease against the dollar, to 18.8 percent after registering 33.2 percent in October on a one-month annualised basis. On Oct 24 it soared above 44 percent.
That 44 percent was higher than the peak of 35 percent struck during the Long-Term Capital Management and Russian debt crisis in 1998.
The poll found median expectations for the Swiss franc, which has rediscovered its traditional safe-haven support in recent weeks, at 1.168 per dollar in one month, 1.17 in six months and 1.190 in a year. Against the euro, the Swiss franc is seen at 1.474 in a month and 1.514 in a year.
(Polling by Bangalore Polling Unit, Writing by Ross Finley; Editing by Victoria Main)