Currency Pair Overview Dollar Mixed Ahead Of Trade Balance Numbers

Overall, the currency market traded mixed in the overnight sessions. The euro, swissy and the yen advanced against the dollar, while the rest of the major currencies declined for a second consecutive day. The market again lacked momentum and volume in the Asian session, but regained some during the European trading hours.

The Euro (EUR/USD) rose again in the overnight session, gaining 70 pips. For the moment, it seems that the euro is following the same pattern of trading as yesterday, when the euro, together with the swissy, were the only major pairs that advanced against the dollar. However, the euro now approaches the 20-day simple moving average, where some traders might use it as an exit point.

The German CPI fell by 0.5% in January, in-line with the market’s expectations. Last month, in December, the German CPI rose for the first time in the last 5 month. Year-over-year inflation in Germany reached 0.9%, dragged lower by the huge declines seen in the energy market.

The Pound (GBP/USD) dropped another 140 pips in the overnight sessions, as the market prepared itself for the BoE Inflation Report. The pound tumbled in the last two days of trading nearly 500 pips, breaking below the 50-day simple moving average and under a very important trend-line that connected the peaks from November to January.

The unemployment rate increased again in the U.K. in the latest three months to December 2008, to the highest rate seen in the last decade. The released rate of 6.3% is in-line with market expectations. The annual rate of growth in average earnings excluding bonuses was 3.6% in the three months to December 2008, unchanged from the three months to November. The number of people seeking unemployment increased again in January, to the highest value in the last 10 years. The report shows there were 1.23 million persons on he claimant count in January, and up by 73,800 from one month earlier

The Aussie (AUD/USD) traded without a clear direction in the overnight session. The pair had some small swings around the Asian open price, but never succeeded to break anywhere. For the moment, the aussie is trading near a very important swing area, near the 20-day simple moving average and near the 0.6500 support level.

Home loans in Australia grew twice as much as analysts’ estimates of 3.6 percent to an astounding 6.4 percent in December. In trend terms, the total value of dwelling finance commitments increased 0.8%. Owner occupied housing commitments increased 1.7%, while investment housing commitments decreased 1.3%. The consumer sentiment indicator for Australia fell to -4.6 percent from last month’s -2.2 percent reading. The sentiment index came in at 85.8 points in February and this is the twelfth month that the index has held below 100.

The Cad (USD/CAD) extended the gains seen one day earlier, and added another 50 pips. Most of the gains came shortly after the London Open, while earlier, during the Asian trading hours, the cad traded mostly flat. The cad is getting close to the 1.2500 resistance level, which has held the pair for about three weeks.

The Swissy (USD/CHF) advanced 60 pips in the early part of the Asian session, but shed every pip gained soon after. During the European session, the pair fell another 50 pips, and tested the low of the previous day of trading, very close to the area formed by the 20 and the 100-day moving averages.

The Yen (Usd/Yen) tested the 20-day simple moving average, after declining 45 pips overnight. The pair moved lower and broke below the previous day’s low even though the S&P futures advanced a little overnight. In the last three days, the yen has lost 210 pips.