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WRAPUP 1-E.Europe exports fall, grim growth outlook seen

Published 01/09/2009, 08:30 AM
Updated 01/09/2009, 08:32 AM

* Hungary's exports fall sharply in November

* Romania trade deficit narrows in November

* Slovak trade gap worse than expected

By Radu Marinas

BUCHAREST, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Slovakia and Hungary exports fell sharply in November, while Romanian export growth slowed down, depicting a grim growth outlook in central Europe as weakening demand from the recession-hit euro zone takes its toll.

Slovakia fell into a deficit of 7.3 billion crowns in November, 11 folds wider than expected, as its exports plunged 15.6 percent, while Hungary had a higher-than-expected surplus of 99.9 million euros, with exports dipping 10.4 percent.

A separate set of data on Thursday showed the Czech trade balance posting an unexpected deficit, the worst November figure since 2003, pointing to further worsening in 2009 as exports saw the steepest fall in the region of 18 percent.

Economies in the region have been damaged by the global financial crisis and analysts have said the impact of a halt in Russian gas supplies on their industries may also aggravate the situation if the Moscow-Kiev gas row is not resolved quickly.

"The trade numbers we've seen this week only confirm the picture that we already knew ... exports have declined and that would be a result of weaker foreign demand. The story is the same across the region," said Lucy Bethell from RBS in London.

Slovakia's small and open economy relies heavily on exports to the West and is affected by the global crisis as demand for its products, mainly cars and electronic devices weakens.

In Germany, the EU's largest economy, industrial output fell by 10 percent in November, its biggest annual drop since 1993, dragged down by a sharp downturn in manufacturing that is threatening to cause a record contraction in economic growth.

"Worsening of the environment is quite significant, the decline in (Slovakian) exports is bigger than expected as well," said CSOB analyst Marek Gabris.

"We will feel this in the fourth quarter (2008) GDP data, but it will be fully visible mainly in the first half this year. The crisis is gradually spilling into the Slovak economy."

EASIER CREDIT

In Romania export growth slowed on the year as global demand has dwindled but it was faster than import growth in the first 11 months of 2008, signalling possible narrowing of the trade gap, seen as key to curbing its bulging external deficit.

Both import and export growth in the new EU member, the bloc's most vulnerable economy, fell by around 3 percentage points in November, when the leu currency lost around 4 percent against the euro.

For the month of November alone, the trade deficit narrowed to 1.68 billion euros from 2 billion euros in October.

Analysts say data point to rate cuts across the region.

They say as exports suffer, unemployment is rising, and domestic demand is dampened by slowing bank lending, central banks across the region are expected to continue cutting interest rates further to give a boost to faltering growth.

"The data point to rate cuts," said Bethell. "It highlights the fact that growth is slowing and, as such, inflationary pressures should ease."

"The Czech began easing policy much sooner ... so is much closer to the bottom of their cycle."

Czech consumer prices dropped in line with expectations in December, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.6 percent, from 4.4 percent a month earlier, data showed on Friday

"Together with indications of collapsing exports and industrial output, the data are supportive for further monetary easing," said Radomir Jac, chief analyst at Generali PPF asset management. (Additional reporting by Martin Santa in Bratislava; Editing by Andy Bruce)

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