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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: February 6 - 10

Published 02/05/2012, 08:03 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar rallied to a five-month high against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as risk sentiment found support after better-than-expected U.S. employment data.

NZD/USD 0.8378 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 4; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8355 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 1.52% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8292, the low of September 5 and resistance at 0.8431, the high of August 8.

The U.S. Department of Labor said nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 last month, the fastest increase in nine months, after a revised 203,000 gain in December. Economists had expected the U.S. economy to add 150,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to a three-year low of 8.3%.

A separate report showing a greater-than-expected expansion in the U.S. service sector in January also boosted the greenback.

The upbeat data dampened expectations for a new round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.

In testimony to the House Budget Committee in Washington on Thursday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy has shown “signs of improvement” but warned that the outlook remained “uncertain”.

But the kiwi’s gains were limited as investors remained concerned over delays in negotiations on a debt restructuring deal for Greece, despite assurances from European officials that a deal is close to being finalized.

Greece needs to secure an agreement with its private creditors on a debt swap deal in order to receive its next tranche of bailout funds in order to avoid a default when a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment comes due on March 20.

In the week ahead, investors will be watching developments in the euro zone, with European leaders holding a string of meetings to discuss Greece’s bailout and the financial guarantees for the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone’s new bailout fund.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is to hold its policy setting meeting, but the bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1%.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify before the Senate budget committee in Washington.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday because there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, February 7

New Zealand is to publish official data on labor cost inflation, a key indicator of consumer inflation.

In the U.S., Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the Senate Budget Committee in Washington.

Wednesday, February 8

Elsewhere, the U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, February 9

New Zealand is to publish official data on employment change, an important indicator of consumer spending, followed by a report on the country’s unemployment rate.

The U.S. is to publish government data on unemployment claims, an important signal of overall economic health.

Friday, February 10

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on the country’s trade balance, as well as preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Later in the day, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak about the housing market at the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders show.


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