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Forex - Weekly outlook: April 16 - 20

Published 04/15/2012, 04:51 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar strengthened against most of its global counterparts on Friday, amid concerns over rising Spanish borrowing costs and fears over the outlook for global economic growth, following disappointing Chinese data.

The cost of insuring Spanish government debt against default rose to an all-time high on Friday, after a report showed that Spain’s banks borrowed a record amount from the European Central Bank in March.

In addition, a member of the ECB’s governing council said that markets were overreacting to concerns about Spain and added that the bank had no reason to resume its bond purchase program to ease pressure on the country’s borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, official data showed that the Chinese economy grew at the slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, fuelling concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

China’s gross domestic product grew by 8.1% in the three months to March, disappointing expectations for an 8.3% increase, after recording an expansion of 8.9% in the fourth quarter.

Earlier in the week official data showed that China posted an unexpected trade surplus in March, after imports dropped sharply.

The commodity linked Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened against the greenback following the weak Chinese GDP data, amid concerns that commodity prices may decline.

The Australian dollar had rallied against the greenback on Thursday after official data showed that the domestic economy added 44,000 jobs in March, far better than forecasts for an increase of 6,000.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment fell in April as rising fuel costs weighed.

The data came one day after official data showed that U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rose to 380,000, defying expectations for a decline to 355,000.

The yen ended the week higher against the greenback and the euro, after the Bank of Japan held off from implementing fresh stimulus measures, following Tuesday’s policy meeting.

However, the yen’s gains were limited after the governor of the BoJ said the central bank will pursue “powerful easing” to help overcome deflation and put the economy on a sustainable growth path.

Elsewhere Friday, ratings agency Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its triple-A rating on the U.K., saying the government will be able to stick to its austerity program.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Monday’s U.S. data on retail sales, amid concerns that high fuel costs will hit consumer spending. In addition Spain is due to auction new two and 10-year government bonds on Thursday. The amount to be offered is to be announced on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 16

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Switzerland is to publish government data on producer price inflation, a key gauge of consumer inflation.

Also Monday, Canada is to produce official data on foreign securities purchases, which is closely linked to currency demand.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release a report on manufacturing activity in New York, as well as government data on net long-term securities transactions and business inventories.

Tuesday, April 17

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting, which give investors important insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Australia is also to release official data on new motor vehicle sales, a sign of consumer confidence.

New Zealand is to produce an industry report on house price inflation later in the day.

The U.K. is to produce industry data on consumer confidence, followed by official data on consumer and retail price inflation.

In the euro zone, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish reports on economic sentiment in Germany and in the entire single currency bloc. The euro zone is to produce official data on consumer price inflation, while ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak.

Later Tuesday, the Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and release its rate statement. In addition, Canada is to publish government data on manufacturing sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The country is also to release official data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, leading indicators of economic strength.

Wednesday, April 18

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

In the euro zone, the ECB is to publish data on its current account, which is the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows and unilateral transfers.

The U.K. is to release official data on claimant count change and on the unemployment rate, important signals of overall economic health. The Bank of England is also to release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

Elsewhere in Europe, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a key indicator of economic health.

The Bank of Canada is to release its monetary policy report, followed by a press conference to discuss the bank’s interest rate decision on Tuesday.
 
Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to produce government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, April 19

BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa is scheduled to speak in New York; his comments will be closely watched for any hints on the future possible direction of monetary policy. Japan is also to release government data on the country’s trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

Elsewhere, New Zealand is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation, while the National Australia Bank is to publish a report on quarterly business confidence.

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims, followed by industry data on existing home sales and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.

Friday, April 20

Japan is to publish government data on tertiary industry activity, a leading indicator of economic health, while Australia is to produce official data on import prices.

In the euro zone, Germany is to publish official data on producer price inflation, while the Ifo Institute is to release a report on German business climate.

Elsewhere in Europe, the U.K. is to release official data on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending.

Canada is to round up the week with official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

Also Friday, the International Monetary Fund is also scheduled to hold the first of two days of meetings in Washington.


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