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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: January 29 - February 3

Published 01/29/2012, 06:41 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell sharply against the yen on Friday, after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is considering another round of quantitative easing and after slightly weaker than expected U.S. data on fourth quarter growth.

USD/JPY hit 78.27 on Wednesday, the pair’s highest since November 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 76.67 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.36% over the week.

The pair is likely to find short-term support at 76.54, the low of January 17 and resistance at 77.30, the high of January 20.

The greenback came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pushed back the timing of a possible interest rate increase until late 2014 on and indicated that the bank may embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

At the conclusion of the central bank’s policy setting meeting on Wednesday, Bernanke said that policy makers were “prepared to provide further monetary accommodation” and added that bond buying is “an option that’s certainly on the table.“

The greenback extended losses on Friday, after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter of 2011.

The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded by 2.8% in the three months to December, the fastest quarterly rate in one-and-a-half years, but disappointing expectations for an increase of 3%.

The greenback rose to a two-month high against the yen on Wednesday after official data showed that Japan recorded its first annual trade deficit for 31 years, as the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the strength of the yen and higher commodity prices weighed on exports.

However, the Bank of Japan said in its monthly report that the country's exports are likely to increase moderately going forward, as recovery in overseas economies gathers pace.

Meanwhile, safe haven demand remained supported as negotiations between Greece and its creditors on a debt swap continued on Friday, amid positive signs that the two sides were close to concluding a deal.

An agreement is necessary for Greece to secure the next tranche of bailout funds in order to prevent a sovereign debt default. Greece does not have enough money to cover a EUR14.5 billion bond repayment due March 20.

In the coming week, investors will be closely watching developments in Greece as well as the outcome of Monday’s European Union summit. Also Monday, Italy is to hold an auction of long term government bonds, in what will be an important test of demand for the country’s debt.

In addition, the U.S. is to publish data on service and manufacturing sector growth while Friday’s data on non-farm payrolls will be an important gauge of the recovery in the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 30

The U.S. is to publish government data on personal consumptions expenditure, a leading indicator of inflation, followed by data on personal spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Tuesday, January 31

Japan is to produce an official report on household spending as well as preliminary data on industrial production, a key indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce government data on employment cost inflation, a key gauge of consumer inflation, followed by industry data on house price inflation and the purchasing managers’ index in Chicago. The country is also to release data on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, February 1

Japan is to produce government data on average cash earnings.

Later in the day, the U.S. is to release industry data on non-farm employment change, an important indicator of consumer spending. The country is also to produce a report by the Institute for Supply Management on manufacturing activity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, February 2

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims as well as preliminary data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs. Later in the day, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to testify on the economic outlook and federal budget situation before the house budget committee.

Friday, February 3

The U.S. is to round up the week with official reports on non-farm employment change and the country’s unemployment rate. The country is also to release official data on average hourly earnings and factory orders, as well as a report by the Institute for Supply Management on service sector activity.


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