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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: January 10-14

Published 01/09/2011, 05:45 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week saw the U.S. dollar rally against the yen, rising to a 12-day high, amid expectations that U.S. government data would show strong job creation in December before trimming gains following Friday’s disappointing payrolls report.

USD/JPY hit 83.68 on Friday, the pair’s highest since December 22; the pair subsequently consolidated at 83.11 by close of trade, jumping 2.29% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 81.87, the low of January 5 and resistance at 83.68, last Friday’s high.

The U.S. Department of Labor Department said that non-farm payrolls rose by 103,000 in December, well below the 150,000 forecast gain. However, the unemployment rate fell more-than-expected, sliding to 9.4% from 9.8%.

Following the report, the dollar reversed the day’s gains against the Japanese currency, before recouping some losses as the overall jobs picture was seen as improved.

Earlier in the week, the greenback was boosted after a report from payroll processor ADP showed a job expansion of 297,000 in December, almost tripling economists' forecasts and after the Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index rose to 57.1 December, its highest level since May 2006.

In the week ahead, the U.S. is to release a flurry of economic data, with one major highlight being Friday’s report on retail sales while Japan is to release important data on core machinery orders.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, January 10


In Japan, markets are to remain closed in observance of Coming-of-Age Day.

Tuesday, January 11

Japan is to publish an index of leading indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy. Later in the day, the Bank of Japan is to publish a report on lending and the country’s current account.

In addition, the U.S. is to publish official data on wholesale inventories, as well as a report on economic optimism.

Wednesday, January 12

The U.S. is to publish reports on import prices, crude oil inventories and the federal budget balance, while the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which contains analysis that the Federal Open Market Committee looks at when making interest rate decisions.

Later in the day, Japan is to publish official data on core machinery orders, a key indicator of production output.

Thursday, January 13

The U.S. is to release a flurry of data, including a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of overall economic health. The country is also to publish data on producer price inflation and on its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Also Thursday, Japan is to publish preliminary data on machine tool orders.

Friday, January 14

The U.S. is to round up the week with a string of data, including a report on consumer price inflation, which accounts for a majority of overall inflation. The country is also slated to produce official data on industrial production, the capacity utilization rate as well as a report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending.

Later in the day, the country is to produce preliminary data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations as well as official data on business inventories.

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