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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: February 18 - 22

Published 02/17/2013, 06:21 AM
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Investing.com - The dollar was higher against the yen on Friday, for the first time in four sessions after a draft statement by the Group of 20 nations avoided singling out Japan for criticism over policies which weakened its currency.

USD/JPY hit a high of 93.84 on Friday, before settling at 93.50, 0.67% higher for the day and 0.74% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 92.21, Friday’s low and resistance at 94.45, the high of February 11 and a two-and-a-half year high.

The yen was also lower against the euro on Friday. EUR/JPY hit a session high of 125.28 and settled at 124.93, up 0.68% for the day, but 1.04% lower for the week.

The G20 pledged that members would "refrain from competitive devaluation" and said that risks to the world economy had receded but growth remained too weak and unemployment too high.

The yen was higher against the dollar and the euro earlier in the week after a statement by the G7 indicated concern over excessive movement in value of the yen.

Following the G20 meeting investors focus turned to the upcoming announcement of the next governor of the Bank of Japan after Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier this month that he plans to step down on March 19, three weeks earlier than expected.

Expectations that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will keep up pressure on the central bank to implement more aggressive easing measures have pushed the yen sharply lower since November.

On Thursday, the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged, in a widely expected decision.

Separately, official data showed that Japan’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, compared to expectations for an uptick of 0.1%.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment improved in February. The University of Michigan said its index of consumer confidence rose to 76.3 from 73.8 in January, better than expectations for a reading of 74.8.

In the week ahead investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, while Japanese trade data will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Friday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, February 18

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the President’s Day holiday.

Tuesday, February 19

The BoJ is to release monetary policy meeting minutes, which contain important insights into economic conditions from the Bank’s perspective.

Wednesday, February 20

Japan is to publish official data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.

The U.S. is to release official data on building permits, a strong indicator of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The U.S. is also to publish official data on producer prices, while the Federal Reserve is to release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting.

Thursday, February 21

The U.S. is to release official data on consumer price inflation as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish industry data on existing home sales, a report on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia and official data on crude oil stockpiles.



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