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Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: March 5 - 9

Published 03/04/2012, 07:29 AM
NZD/USD
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Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar ended the week sharply lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as sustained concerns over the handling of the euro zone’s financial crisis dampened risk sentiment.

NZD/USD hit 0.8284 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since February 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8287 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.94% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8212, the low of February 1 and resistance at 0.8417, the high of February 28.

The kiwi fell to a six-day low against the greenback on Friday as market sentiment waned after official data showed that German retail sales fell unexpectedly in January, sparking fresh concerns over the outlook for the euro zone’s largest economy.

Investors were also cautious as Spain’s government raised its budget deficit target to 5.8% of gross domestic product for 2012, compared to a previous target of 4.4%.

The New Zealand dollar surged over 1% against the greenback on Wednesday, before erasing gains after the European Central Bank allotted EUR529.5 billion in loans to 800 lenders in its second long-term refinancing operation, amid concerns that the action was equivalent to quantitative easing.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rallied broadly after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dampened expectations for a third round of monetary easing in testimony to Congress on Wednesday, after he acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market and said that higher oil prices could push up inflation.

The remarks came after the U.S. Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0% during the fourth quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.8%.

Other reports painted a mixed picture of the U.S. economic recovery. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders dropped to a three-year low in January.

The Institute for Supply Management said Thursday that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate than expected in February, while official data showed that U.S. initial jobless claims declined modestly in the previous week, holding close to the lowest level since March 2008.

Earlier in the week, the National Bank of New Zealand said that its index of business confidence climbed to 28.0 in February from a reading of 16.9 the previous month.

The report came after official data showed that buildings consents in New Zealand surged 8.3% in January after a 2.6% rise the previous month. December’s figure had been revised up from 2.1%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls, to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery. Market participants will also be continuing to watch developments in Europe, ahead of interest rate announcements by the ECB on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Tuesday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Monday, March 5

The U.S. is to produce government data on factory orders, while the Institute of Supply Management is to release a report on service sector growth.

Wednesday, March 7

The U.S. is to publish a report on ADP non-farm payrolls, which leads government data by two days. The country is also to release revised data on non-farm productivity and labor costs, which are important inflationary indicators, as well as a report on crude oil stockpiles.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and hold a press conference to discuss monetary policy.

Thursday, March 8

The U.S. is to produce government data on initial jobless claims, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, March 9

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate, leading indicators of economic health, in addition to data on the trade balance and average hourly earnings.


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