Forex - NZD/USD weekly outlook: June 1 - 5

Investing.com - The New Zealand dollar plunged to a five-year low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as investors wagered that interest rates in New Zealand and in the U.S. were set on a diverging course.

NZD/USD hit 0.7080 on Friday, the pair's weakest level since September 1, 2010, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7106 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.99% for the day.

For the week, the pair fell 2.82%, the sixth consecutive weekly decline, amid growing expectations for a rate cut in New Zealand and increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates after the summer.

The kiwi weakened after weaker than expected data on business confidence was seen as boosting the likelihood of a rate cut by the country’s central bank.

ANZ Business Confidence for New Zealand fell to 15.7 in May from April's reading of 30.2, as inflation expectations dropped sharply.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., official data showed that the economy contracted 0.7% in the first three months of 2015, compared to an initial estimate of growth of 0.2%. The downward revision was broadly in line with analysts' expectations.

Despite the disappointing reading, most market experts expect the U.S. economy to rebound in the second quarter, as transitory factors recede.

Economic data released in the past week, including reports on inflation, new home sales, business investment and consumer confidence all indicated that the economy is gaining momentum after a slowdown in the first quarter, supporting the case for higher interest rates later this year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.2% on Friday to end at 96.94, moving further way from Wednesday’s five-week peak of 97.88.

Despite Friday's losses, the dollar still rose 0.9% on the week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the central bank expects to start raising interest rates later this year if the economy continues to improve as expected.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for May, for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and the timing of a U.S. rate increase.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 1

China is to release official data on manufacturing and service sector growth as well as the final reading of the HSBC manufacturing index. The Asian nation is New Zealand's second-largest trade partner.

Later in the day, the Institute of Supply Management is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, June 2

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to report on factory orders.

Wednesday, June 3

China is to release the final reading of the HSBC service sector index.

The European Central Bank is also to announce its monetary policy decision. The rate announcement will be followed by a post-policy meeting press conference with President Mario Draghi.

The U.S. is to release the ADP non-farm payrolls report, which looks at private sector jobs growth, while the ISM is to report on U.S. service sector activity. The country will also release data on the trade balance.

Thursday, June 4

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, June 5

The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government report on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate and average earnings.