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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: June 22 - 26

Published 06/21/2015, 10:58 AM
© Reuters.  Euro edges lower on Friday but still post weekly gain against the dollar
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Investing.com - The euro edged lower against the dollar on Friday as the impasse in negotiations between Greece and its creditors continued but the dollar ended the week lower after the Federal Reserve indicated that rate increases are likely to be gradual.

EUR/USD was last at 1.1352 in late trade, after falling to lows of 1.1293 earlier. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.15%.

The greenback came under pressure after the Fed lowered both its U.S. growth forecast and its interest-rate projections on Wednesday, prompting investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank wanted to see “more decisive evidence” of sustained growth before raising rates, but acknowledged that the economy has “expanded moderately” after a weak first quarter.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell to a five-week low of 93.30 on Thursday, before recovering to end at 94.32 by late Friday.

The index still ended the week down 1.02%, the third straight weekly decline.

The single currency remained under pressure ahead of the approaching deadline for Greece’s repayments to the International Monetary Fund at the end of the month.

A default by Greece could lead to the country’s exit from the euro zone.

Europe wants Greece to make spending cuts in order to secure a deal that will unlock €7.2 billion in bailout funds and prevent Athens defaulting on its debts when its bailout expires at the end of the month.

On Friday the European Central Bank extended extra emergency liquidity to Greek lenders as outflows from banks continued.

The euro was lower against the yen and the pound, with EUR/JPY down 0.28% to 139.28 and EUR/GBP at 0.7148 late Friday.

The safe haven Swiss franc also gained ground, with EUR/CHF down 0.5% at 1.0416.

On Thursday the Swiss National Bank left its deposit rate on hold at a record low and reiterated that it is still prepared to take further action to weaken what it called the “overvalued” franc

In the week ahead, euro zone ministers are to hold talks in Brussels on Monday to discuss the crisis in Greece.

The euro zone is to release data on private sector growth on Tuesday, while the week will also bring what will be closely watched reports on the U.S. factory and housing sectors.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 22

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales.

European leaders are to hold emergency talks in Brussels about Greece’s bailout agreement, which is due to expire on June 30.

Tuesday, June 23

The euro zone is to release survey data on private sector activity.

The U.S. is to release reports on durable goods orders, manufacturing activity and new home sales.

Wednesday, June 24

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter economic growth.

Thursday, June 25

The Gfk Group is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as data on consumer spending.

Friday, June 26

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer spending.

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