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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: June 24 - 28

Published 06/23/2013, 09:00 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session near the lowest level since September 2010 against its U.S. counterpart, after the Federal Reserve said it could start scaling back its bond buying program by the end of the year.

The Aussie was also pressured amid fears over a deepening slowdown in China.

AUD/USD hit 0.9162 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 8, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9212 by close of trade on Friday, 3.73% lower for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9162, Thursday’s low and a 33-month low and resistance at 0.9311, Thursday’s session high.

The dollar rallied after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the bank could begin slowing its USD85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects.

The bank said it expects the U.S. economy to grow between 2.3% and 2.6% in 2013. The Fed also said it expects the unemployment rate to fall to between 6.5% and 6.8% by the end of 2014 and inflation to edge closer to its 2% target.

Sentiment on the Aussie was further dampened after data Thursday showed that manufacturing activity hit a nine-month low in June.

China’s HSBC preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May as new orders declined, indicating that the slowdown in manufacturing is worsening.

The Asian nation is Australia’s largest trade partner.

Meanwhile, in Australia, expectations for further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia were fuelled by the minutes of the bank's latest policy meeting.

The minutes of the RBA's June 4 meeting released earlier in the week showed that policymakers said the Aussie may fall further as export prices ease. They also repeated that the bank has room to cut interest rates further.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching U.S. data on durable goods orders, jobless claims and consumer confidence for signs that the economic recovery is on track.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, June 25

The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as closely watched reports on consumer confidence and new home sales

Wednesday, June 26

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter economic growth as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 27

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims along with data on personal income and expenditure, which is to be followed by private sector data on pending home sales.

Friday, June 28

Australia is to publish government data on private sector credit.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on manufacturing activity in Chicago and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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