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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 16 - 20

Published 04/15/2012, 08:43 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar turned lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, paring some of the week’s gains, after disappointing data on Chinese economic growth sparked fears that commodity prices may decline.

AUD/USD hit 1.0449 on Thursday, the pair’s highest since April 3; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0370 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.72% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0225, Wednesday’s low and a three-month low and resistance at 1.0449, Thursday’s high.

Sentiment on the commodity linked Australian dollar was hit on Friday, after official data showed that the Chinese economy grew at the slowest pace in almost three years in the three months to March, fuelling concerns over a slowdown in global growth.

China’s gross domestic product grew by 8.1% in the first quarter, disappointing expectations for an 8.3% increase, after recording an expansion of 8.9% in the fourth quarter.

Earlier in the week, the Australian dollar touched a three-month low against the greenback, after official data showed that Chinese imports declined sharply in March.

China posted a trade surplus of USD5.35 billion last month, as imports grew just 5.3% after increasing by 39.6% in February. China is Australia’s largest export partner.

Elsewhere Friday, market sentiment was hit as fears over high Spanish borrowing costs intensified, amid concerns that the country’s banks are too dependent on the European Central Bank.

In addition, a member of the ECB’s governing council said that markets were overreacting to concerns about Spain and added that the bank had no reason to resume its bond purchase program to ease pressure on the country’s borrowing costs.

The Australian dollar rallied against the greenback on Thursday after official data showed that the domestic economy added 44,000 jobs in March, far better than forecasts for an increase of 6,000, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.2%, from 5.3% in February.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment fell in April as rising fuel costs weighed.

The data came one day after official data showed that U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rose to 380,000, defying expectations for a decline to 355,000.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Monday’s U.S. data on retail sales, amid concerns that high fuel costs will hit consumer spending. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its April policy meeting.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 16

The U.S. is to release government data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to release a report on manufacturing activity in New York, as well as government data on net long-term securities transactions and business inventories.

Tuesday, April 17

The RBA is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting, which give investors important insights into current economic conditions from the bank’s perspective. Australia is also to release official data on new motor vehicle sales, a sign of consumer confidence.

The U.S. is to produce government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity, as well as data on housing starts. The country is also to release official data on industrial production and the capacity utilization rate, leading indicators of economic strength.

Wednesday, April 18

Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to produce government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, April 19

The National Australia Bank is to publish a report on quarterly business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce government data on unemployment claims, followed by industry data on existing home sales and a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia area.

Friday, April 20

Australia is to produce official data on import prices, an important inflationary indicator.

Also Friday, the International Monetary Fund is also scheduled to hold the first of two days of meetings in Washington.


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