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Forex - EUR/USD Weekly outlook: November 7-11

Published 11/06/2011, 10:39 AM
EUR/USD
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Investing.com - The euro ended the week sharply lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as sustained concerns over the debt crisis in the euro zone and the outcome of a key vote in Greece weighed on demand for the single currency.

EUR/USD hit 1.3067 on Tuesday, the pair's lowest since October 12; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3787 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 2.56% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3607, the low of November 1 and resistance at 1.3975, the high of October 26.

The euro plummeted over 2.5% against the dollar on Monday after Japan's intervention to curb the yen sent the greenback broadly higher. Also Monday, official data showed that the unemployment rate in the single currency bloc rose unexpectedly to 10.2% in September.

The single currency extended losses on Tuesday after Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called for a referendum on the country's latest bailout program. He abandoned the project two days later.

The euro rallied on Thursday after the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate to 1.25% from 1.50% as the region’s escalating debt crisis overshadowed concerns over persistently high inflation.

Speaking at the bank’s post policy meeting press conference, new president Mario Draghi said that ongoing tensions in financial markets could slow the pace of growth in the euro zone and said the region’s economy continued to be "subject to particularly high uncertainty and intensified downside risks."

But market sentiment was strongly hit on Friday, amid uncertainty over the outcome of Greece's key confidence vote. Despite strong internal opposition, Papandreou's government passed the vote by a very narrow margin.

Also Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that few G-20 countries showed interest in providing additional resources to the euro zone's bailout fund, while Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi agreed to allow the International Monetary Fund to monitor the country’s progress on cutting its deficit and implement economic reforms after Italian bond yields rose above 6.3% to a euro-era high.

Earlier in the day, official data showed that German factory orders dropped 4.3% in September, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise.

Meanwhile, the greenback was supported after data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down unexpectedly in October to 9.0% and that non-farm employment rose less-than-expected by 80K in October.

Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that economic growth was "frustratingly slow" and "very unsatisfactory." He added that additional round of asset purchases, specifically mortgage-backed securities, was a "viable option."

In the week ahead, developments in Greece will remain in focus, as opposition parties are calling for early elections while George Papandreou is pushing for a cross-party government to implement the latest European aid package.

Investors will also be closely watching for a U.S. report on trade balance, as well as the country's weekly report on unemployment claims.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, November 7


In the euro zone, data is to be released on investor confidence. Later in the day, official data on retail sales is to be published, as well a report on German industrial production.

Tuesday, November 8

In the euro zone, members of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council are to hold talks.

Wednesday, November 9

In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver welcoming remarks at the Federal Reserve Conference on Small Business and Entrepreneurship during an Economic Recovery.

An official report on U.S. crude oil inventories is also to be released later Wednesday.

Thursday, November 10

In the euro zone, an official report is to be released on French industrial production, a key measure of economic health. Later Thursday, the European Central Bank is to produce its monthly bulletin, which reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release a report on trade balance as well as weekly data on unemployment claims. Later in the day, government reports are to be released on import prices and federal budget balance.

Friday, November 11

In the euro zone, French markets will be closed due to a national holiday.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the University of Michigan's preliminary report on consumer sentiment.

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