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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: August 27- 31

Published 08/26/2012, 06:49 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar pushed higher against the yen on Friday, trimming some of the week’s losses, but remained lower on the week amid speculation that the Federal Reserve is moving closer to implementing more economic stimulus measures.

USD/JPY hit 78.27 on Wednesday, the pair’s lowest since August 14; the pair subsequently consolidated at 78.65 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.13%.

The pair is likely to find support at 78.27, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 79.36, the high of the same day.

The yen came under pressure on Friday, after Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa warned that a possible slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the strong yen could hamper Japan’s recovery, indicating that the central bank remains ready to implement more monetary stimulus.

The comments came after official data earlier in the week showed that Japanese exports fell to the lowest level in six months in July, as the euro zone’s debt crisis and slowing growth in China hit demand.

Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY0.33 trillion in July, up from a JPY0.30 trillion deficit the previous month, compared to an expected deficit of JPY0.46 trillion.

In the euro zone, German Chancellor Angela Merkel rejected Greek pleas for an extension to its economic reform program, following talks with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras on Friday.

Chancellor Merkel said it was up to Greece to show that it could implement the austerity measures agreed with its international creditors, but reiterated that the country should stay in the euro zone.

The dollar declined sharply against the yen on Wednesday, falling 0.87%, after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s August meeting showed that many policymakers think additional easing may be warranted "fairly soon" unless there is evidence of a "substantial and sustainable" strengthening in the economic recovery.

In the coming week investors will be looking ahead to a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the week, amid ongoing speculation over how close the U.S. central bank is to implementing more stimulus measures.

In addition, the U.S. is to release revised data on second quarter economic growth, while Japan is to release official data on inflation and retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, August 28

The U.S. is to release a report on consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as industry data on house price inflation.

Wednesday, August 29

The U.S. is to produce revised data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The country is also to release industry data on pending home sales, as well as official data on crude oil stockpiles and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

Thursday, August 30

Japan is to publish a government report on retail sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to produce official data on personal consumption expenditures and personal spending. In addition, the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is set to begin.

Friday, August 31

Japan is to produce official data on household spending, followed by a report on consumer price inflation in the Tokyo area. The country is also to publish preliminary data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on Chicago’s purchasing managers’ index as well as revised data by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment, as well as official data on factory orders.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium; his comments will be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.



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