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DAVOS-UPDATE 1-Russia cbanker sees inflation risks in H1

Published 01/27/2011, 02:49 AM
Updated 01/27/2011, 02:52 AM

* Ulyukayev sees high inflation risks in coming months

* Inflation key in Jan. 31 decision on refi rate

* Head of biggest bank says too soon to hike rates

(Adds quotes, background)

By Dmitry Zhdannikov

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Russia will face high inflation risks throughout the first half of the year, central bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev has said, fanning investor expectations of an interest rate hike next week.

Consumer prices in Russia have surged since the worst summer drought in a century killed a third of the crop, and authorities are increasingly worried as inflation -- a key concern for voters ahead of December parliamentary elections -- spills over beyond food.

"I think inflation risks are high, they increased at the end of last year - the start of this year, both statistically and for fundamental reasons," Ulyukayev said late on Wednesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The central bank late last year switched the focus of its rhetoric to fretting about rising prices from the need to stimulate economic growth with record low interest rates.

In December, it hiked deposit rates and analysts expect the next tightening move on Monday, Jan. 31 -- possibly to include the benchmark refinancing rate as well. [ID:nLDE70N0VR]

"It seems, this situation with high risks will last for a few more months. A lot will depend ... on how we act. But I think that it is quite likely that this trend will last ... until the middle of the year," Ulyukayev said.

"We do not say anything about our plans. We evaluate the risks and will take our decisions based on that."

Consumer prices jumped 1.8 percent in the first 24 days of the month, already exceeding the 1.6 percent rise in the whole of last January and signalling the central bank may struggle to meet its 6-7 percent target for inflation for all of 2011. [ID:nMSC000141]

One concern, though, is that higher rates could stifle a nascent pick up in lending -- seen as key to economic recovery.

German Gref, the CEO of Russia's biggest lender Sberbank said it was too soon for the central bank to raise interest rates this month.

"The trend (of rising inflation) already exists, but I think it is too soon to fret, there is still time," Gref said.

"You can probably slowly start to raise the rate in the first quarter, but not starting from January." (Writing by Toni Vorobyova; editing by Patrick Graham)

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