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FOREX-U.S. dollar falters as euro buying, Bernanke weigh

Published 02/09/2011, 11:50 AM
Updated 02/09/2011, 11:52 AM

* Bernanke still worried about high unemployment

* Euro on upward trajectory on technical charts

* More dollar/yen gains seen, playing catch-up to yields (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, Bernanke comment)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. unemployment remained too high, suggesting the Fed would push on with its $600 billion stimulus program.

Euro buying by central banks to diversify their reserves also undermined the dollar.

The euro broke above a key $1.3700 level versus the dollar, triggering stops just above that point in the wake of Bernanke's testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Budget Committee that largely echoed a speech he delivered last week.

Traders said the euro may encounter resistance at $1.3745, a daily pivot point, and above there, at $1.3765, the low on Feb. 2, and $1.3825, the high on the same day.

For now, analysts said the euro seemed to be on an ascending path on the technical charts.

Some analysts hoped that given broadening signs of a U.S. recovery, Bernanke would drop hints that the Fed would end its bond-buying program sooner than expected. Instead he repeated concerns about high unemployment, ensuring the Fed's quantitative easing will remain in place and fueling dollar selling.

In general, the Fed's easing program tends to weaken the greenback because it boosts the supply of dollars in the market.

"Bernanke is telling you that the Fed is not going to rush to raise rates, and that's why the dollar sold off," said David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

"To some extent, he's also pouring cold (water) on the bond market selloff in the last week or so. So the dollar selloff is in sync with the rally in Treasuries."

In mid-day trading, the euro rose 0.4 percent versus the dollar to $1.3684, after hitting session highs at $1.3721 on electronic trading platform EBS.

The euro has been rising all morning, with traders citing talk of buying by central banks in Russia and South Korea.

Near-term support was at $1.3538, the 100-day moving average, followed by $1.3480, the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-February euro rally.

The dollar, meanwhile, held gains against the yen, supported by the rising trend in U.S. yields.

U.S. Treasury yields have moved higher across the curve in the past week amid signs of a broadening U.S. recovery and positive comments from Fed officials. Two-year yields have risen about 30 basis points in the last week.

Higher yields tend to support the dollar against the yen.

The dollar gained 0.2 percent to 82.43 yen, recovering from a fall to 81.77 yen on Tuesday. Hedge funds were said to be buyers of the currency pair overnight, with traders citing stops above 82.70 yen.

A break through 82.95 yen, the initial trendline resistance, will trigger a bullish signal on dollar/yen and open upside toward 85 yen, BNP Paribas said in a note.

More gains for the dollar are seen in the near term against the yen, analysts said, especially since the currency pair has lagged the increase in Treasury yields. At current two-year yields, analysts said the dollar should be trading between 88 to 89 yen.

Further weighing on the yen was a Moody's warning that a lack of success on fiscal reform would negatively affect Japan's credit rating.

The dollar fell 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.9608 francs and was also down 0.2 percent against sterling at $1.6108.

The ICE Futures' dollar index, measured against six major currencies, lost 0.4 percent to 77.730.

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