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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 12-16

Published 04/11/2010, 07:06 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – The Aussie extended its rally against its U.S. counterpart last week, surging to a 4-month high after Australia's interest-rate advantage over the United States approached a 2008 high.

AUD/USD hit 0.9346 toward the end of U.S. trade on Friday, its highest since Nov. 17 last year; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9331 at the end of trade.

The pair is likely to find short-term resistance at 0.9405, the high of Nov. 16, 2009, and support at 0.9001, the low of March 26.

Next week, Australia is set to release key data on its housing market. A number of important private reports are also due for release in the country regarding business and consumer confidence, and inflation expectations.

The United States, meanwhile, is scheduled to publish reports on unemployment claims, the retail and manufacturing sectors, its trade balance and U.S. Treasury debt. The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben Bernanke, is also set to speak at a number of events.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect AUD/USD.

Monday, April 12

Australia will publish a report on the number of new loans granted for owner-occupied homes, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Also Monday, the U.S. will publish its Federal Budget Balance, the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

Tuesday, April 13

The National Australia Bank will publish a monthly survey of business confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. Later in the day, the U.S. will publish its trade balance, the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Also Tuesday, Bernanke is set to speak at an event in Washington, D.C. Traders will likely scrutinize his comments for clues to future shifts in monetary policy.

Wednesday, April 14

The Westpac Banking Corporation will publish a report on consumer sentiment, an important indicator of consumer spending.

Also Wednesday, the U.S. will publish monthly CPI data and a monthly report on retail sales, after which Bernanke is due to testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

The Fed will later publish its Beige Book, which contains analysis used by the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee ahead of its decision on interest rates, and the U.S. will publish weekly data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, April 15

The Melbourne Institute, a research center, will publish a monthly report on inflation expectations, which measures the percentage by which consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months.

Later in the day, the U.S. will release a closely watched report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. Treasury will also publish its TIC Long-Term purchases report, which measures the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by U.S. citizens and U.S. long-term securities purchased by foreigners.

Also Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia will key publish data on the manufacturing sector in the city, as will the Federal Reserve Bank of New York do for New York State.

Friday, April 16

The U.S. will publish key data on the number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month, and on housing starts. Also Friday, the University of Michigan will release a report on U.S. consumer sentiment, a leading indicator of consumer spending.

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