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UPDATE 2-Turkish bonds weaken on rate hike speculation

Published 04/06/2010, 10:56 AM

* Bond yields rise on rate hike speculation

* Turkish shares ease from record high, lira firm

* Turkish Airlines dips on results

* 10-yr bond yield higher than forecast at auction

(Adds closing prices)

ISTANBUL, April 6 (Reuters) - Turkish bond yields rose on Tuesday after rising core inflation stoked speculation that the Central Bank could bring interest rate hikes forward, while shares hovered close to an all-time high.

The interest rate speculation overshadowed the latest burst of arrests of military officers in connection with a seven-year-old coup plot.

Inflation concerns also hit the Treasury's tap of its first 10-year lira-denominated bond, which attracted an average compound yield of 10.93 percent, above a poll forecast of 10.78 percent.

March consumer price inflation was up 9.56 percent year-on-year and the producer price index rose 8.58 percent data showed.

The Nov. 16, 2011 benchmark bond yield ended at 9.17 percent on Tuesday from a previous 8.94 percent on Monday when yields had also risen after the inflation data showed producer prices rose faster than expected.

"The upside inflation outcomes for the past four months have created a significant credibility challenge for the Central Bank," said JP Morgan economist Yarkin Cebeci.

He noted the Central Bank was lending money at levels well below headline inflation, with the one-week lending rate at 6.8 percent and the three-month rate at 7.5 percent, and forecast it would raise its benchmark overnight borrowing rate by 100 basis points to 7.5 percent at its April 13 meeting.

Economists have been forecasting the bank would not begin hiking rates until the third quarter.

The focus on inflation also pushed into the background the Finance Ministry's statement on Saturday that it envisaged zero withholding tax on Turkish bond transactions for companies including mutual funds, but a 10 percent tax for individuals.

The main Istanbul share index closed down 0.41 percent at 58,406.36, having touched a record intraday high of 58,896.62 on Monday.

The lira firmed to 1.5115 against the dollar on the interbank market from Monday's close of 1.5145 and firmed further to 1.5070 in Wednesday-dated trade.

A burgeoning economic recovery has increased inflationary pressures in the European Union candidate country. Data released last week showed Turkey's economy grew 6 percent in the fourth quarter, helping keep the 2009 contraction at 4.7 percent.

The central bank has said a worsening inflation outlook could be a reason to bring forward anticipated interest rate hikes. On Tuesday the bank said it expected inflation to begin falling again from the fourth quarter.

The bank said on Monday it would announce its "exit strategy" on April 14.

Among stocks in focus, Turkish Airlines fell 1.87 percent to 5.25 lira after it announced a 50.7 percent fall in 2009 net profit to 559 million lira, below a forecast 673 million lira.

Top-traded Garanti Bank fell 0.67 percent to 7.4 lira after National Bank of Kuwait, Kuwait's largest lender, said it was considering buying a stake in Garanti Bank as Turkey was one of the emerging world's most attractive banking sectors.

Shares in publisher Hurriyet Gazetecilik rose 2.37 percent to 1.73 lira after it said it had settled a 45.2 million lira tax fine with a deal to pay 17.2 million lira, due in one month. (Writing by Daren Butler; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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