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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: April 4-8

Published 04/03/2011, 06:26 AM
USD/JPY
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Investing.com – Last week the yen had its largest weekly decline against the U.S. dollar in more than a year amid fears that the Bank of Japan will lag behind the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in raising interest rates, in the wake of the March 11 earthquake.

USD/JPY hit 84.97 on Friday, the pair’s highest since September 24, 2009; the pair subsequently consolidated at 84.03 by close of trade on Friday, tumbling 3.14% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 82.55, last Thursday’s low and resistance at 84.70, Friday’s high.

The greenback's gains came after the Department of Labor said payrolls rose by 216,000 in March after a 194,000 gain the prior month, outstripping expectations for a 188,000 increase. The unemployment rate unexpectedly slid to a two-year low of 8.8%, from 8.9% in February, the Labor Department said.

But the greenback trimmed gains after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said he saw no reason to adjust the central bank's loose monetary policy despite the encouraging jobs data.

The yen was weighed by concerns that economic growth will be curtailed in the wake of the March 11 triple disaster, forcing the BoJ to hold rates at ultra-low levels to help the economy recover.

Meanwhile, radiation levels that can prove fatal were detected at the crippled Fukushima Daiichi plant for the first time last week, while elevated radiation levels were detected in crops grown near the stricken plant as well as the water supply in Tokyo and other areas.

Next week, the BoJ is expected to announce its benchmark interest rate on Thursday. Also next week, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting, while the U.S. is to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 4


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Tuesday, April 5

The Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of the most recent policy setting meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The minutes contain in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on service sector growth, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, April 6


The U.S. is to publish a government report on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, April 7

The BoJ is to announce its benchmark interest rate, which will be followed by a press conference to discuss the rate decision.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to publish a key weekly report on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data as well as data on consumer credit and natural gas inventories.

Friday, April 8

Japan is to produce official data on the country’s current account balance as well as its economy watchers sentiment survey, which monitors consumer spending. In addition, the BoJ is to release its monthly report, which looks at the data policymakers evaluated when making the most recent interest rate decision.

Finally, the U.S. is to round up the week with a report on wholesale inventories, an important indicator of future business spending.


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