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FOREX-U.S. dollar falls to lowest in 5 months vs euro

Published 09/27/2010, 09:39 AM
Updated 09/27/2010, 09:44 AM

* Euro takes out option barriers at $1.35

* Moody's cuts Anglo Irish Bank rating

* CFTC data shows shift to euro longs

* Dollar holds above 84 yen (Recasts, adds quotes, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The dollar on Monday dropped against the euro to its lowest level in five months, still weighed down by expectations the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy to jump-start a sluggish U.S. economy.

The euro earlier dipped after ratings firm Moody's cut Anglo Irish Bank's lower-grade debt and kept it on review for a downgrade, a move that highlighted concerns over the euro zone banking sector. But traders pushed the euro higher, taking out options barriers at $1.35.

Against a major currency basket, the dollar fell to its lowest in seven months.

"The bias is still to sell dollars right now in the wake of the Fed's announcement last week that it is ready to inject more stimulus to the U.S. economy," said Vassili Serebriakov, senior currency strategist, at Wells Fargo in New York.

"We had a brief consolidation earlier where we saw some strength in the dollar. But that has faded and we're back to the current trend of dollar weakness."

The euro rose as high as $1.3507 according to electronic trading platform EBS, taking out barriers at $1.35 to reach its highest since April. It was last at $1.3485, little changed on the day.

The next stop is likely the 55-week moving average which comes in at $1.3630, according to CitiFX in a research note. The bank said there is solid resistance above that level, specifically at $1.3670-$1.3740 where the highs from December 2004, April 2007, and March 2009 converge.

The dollar index fell to 79.192 <.DXY>, the lowest since early February. It last traded at 79.280, down 0.1 pct.

The dollar index broke below 80 last week, where the 55- and 200-weekly moving averages were located. Traders said with the index closing below 80, the signal on the charts has become bearish, opening the way for a move down to at least 75.

IMPACT OF MOODY'S DOWNGRADE WANES

Given a slack economic calendar, the market's earlier focus was on the Moody's downgrade of Anglo Irish. Moody's cut the nationalised bank's senior unsecured debt by three notches to Baa3 -- just one notch above junk status -- and its subordinated debt by six notches to Caa1 and kept it on review for a downgrade. [ID:nLDE68Q15A].

The impact of that story, however, has waned, and markets were left searching for direction.

"The weekend starts on a very quiet note. The only real action we saw was in euro/dollar after the downgrade of Anglo Irish bank and that put presure on the euro," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist, at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

"But the reaction was quick and the euro is confined to very tight trading ranges. Across the board, it is clear that the market is still looking for direction."

Investors were cautious about pushing the euro too high before banks repay 225 billion euros in European Central Bank loans. The tenders are due to expire this week, with banks preparing to repay 12-, six- and three-month funds on Thursday.

If the results highlight more banking sector troubles, traders may turn cautious on the euro, though other analysts say a withdrawal of funds from the system will boost lending rates and provide support for the single currency.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators moved to a net long position in the euro for the first time this year. [IMM/FX] ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Graphic on latest FX positioning http://r.reuters.com/kus26k ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ The dollar edged higher above 84 yen as selling by Japanese exporters and institutional investors ahead of the fiscal half-year end was offset by wariness of more yen-selling intervention by Japan.

It held above a post-intervention low of 84.12 yen hit on Friday and was more than a yen above the 15-year low of 82.87 hit shortly before Japanese authorities acted nearly two weeks ago to sell yen for the first time in six years.

(Additional reporting by Tamawa Desai in London; Graphics by Scott Barber, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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