MANILA, March 24 (Reuters) - Remittance flows to developing countries are likely to fall 5 to 8 percent this year, a reversal from an estimated growth of 8.8 percent in 2008, based on the latest remittance outlook by a technical group of the World Bank.
The latest outlook, released on Monday, was bleaker than the previous forecast of 0.9 to 5.7 percent decline in remittance flows made by the same technical group in November.
Uncertainty over the duration and depth of the global financial crisis, volatile exchange rates and possible tightening of immigration controls in crisis-hit countries pose upside risks to the current outlook, the report said.
Remittances to developing countries were likely to fall to $280 billion-$290 billion this year from an estimated $305 billion in 2008, the report said.
"This decline in nominal dollar terms is small relative to the projected fall in private capital flows or official aid to developing countries," Dilip Ratha and Sanket Mohapatra of the World Bank's migration and remittances team said in an informal briefing note.
"However, considering that remittances registered double-digit annual growth in the past few years, an outright fall in the level of remittance flows as projected now will cause hardships in many poor countries."
Remittance flows were expected to be largely flat next year at $280 billion-$299 billion.
(*To view the full technical report click on http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/MD_Bri ef9_Mar2009.pdf) (Reporting by Rosemarie Francisco; Editing by Kazunori Takada) ((rosemarie.francisco@thomsonreuters.com; +63 2 841-8937; Reuters Messaging: rosemarie.francisco.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com))