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Trade Desk Thoughts:
Commodity and Yield Pair Review
Aussie: The 4-hour trend is moving short, and that has helped the AUD/USD drop approximately 100 pips overnight trade, in a move that took out the 100-day moving average as support at 0.9040. If commodities and equities stay in the red, the aussie could test the 0.8900 area. Favor a straddle ahead of Australian CPI numbers on Tuesday night.
TheLFB Member Charts: AUD/USD
Overall View: Looking for a a near-term low of an impulse, bearish structure.
4 Hour Chart: Short Price Points: 0.8880. Looking for: Low of a Short, wave V) Momentum: The pair's trend went Flat on 26th October, and moved sideways since then with no real strength until eventually moving Short in December. In recent trade, a Neutral trend has been established.Elliott Wave: AUD/USD has finally broke lower after few days of sideways moves around the 0.9050 region. The pair exploded lower as soon as the triangle in wave IV) was completed around 0.9080. Triangles always occurs in the wave IV) position before the final motive wave moves with a direction of an impulse trend. In our case is that trend Short, with a final black wave V) that is searching for support.
The target of wave V), which is also a sub-wave of a Short, red wave I is around 0.8880, where we will look for a three wave bounce higher into a corrective, red wave II.
Cad:
The 4-hour trend has recently moved to long, in-line with USD/CAD showing signs that it wants to move higher, for the sixth consecutive day. The pair is trading just above the 100-day moving average at 1.0570, and that may be the target for a short reversal off the test today of 1.0700. Favor the short side in the near-term.
Yen:
The 4 hour trend is short on USD/JPY. The pair crashed lower overnight, straight through the 50 and the 100-day moving averages. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are below all of the daily chart SMA areas. E/J Swing Point: 127.70. G/J Swing Point: 146.00. Favor a Straddle.