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UPDATE 1-U.N. says Latam growth to slow but escape recession

Published 12/18/2008, 11:25 AM
Updated 12/18/2008, 11:30 AM

(Updates with quotes)

By Antonio de la Jara

SANTIAGO, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The United Nations on Thursday more than halved its forecast for Latin American and Caribbean economic growth to 1.9 percent in 2009, painting a picture of slower world demand for the region's exports, falling foreign investment and costlier borrowing.

The U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, or ECLAC, also trimmed its 2008 regional economic growth estimate to 4.6 percent.

In August, ECLAC had forecast 4 percent growth for the region in 2009 and 4.7 for this year.

While depicting a somber landscape, the U.N. body noted that it saw no country in the region falling into recession.

"The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean have been flying like a glider in 2008, held up by momentum from previous years," the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, or ECLAC, said in a report published on Thursday.

Looking ahead to the first half of next year, it saw the drivers of growth sputtering to a standstill.

"The engines of (global) growth have now stalled and it is not clear when they will start up again, or how the landing will be," it added, saying the global slowdown would mean lower prices and volumes of exports, falling remittances, less foreign investment and more costly external financing.

But it saw a slow and gradual recovery of the regional and world economies starting in the second half of 2009.

By country, ECLAC saw sharp slowdowns in the region's two biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico next year. The World Bank says the two countries account for more than two-thirds of the region's output between them.

ECLAC, based in Santiago, lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth (GDP) in Brazil in 2009 to 2.1 percent from a previous estimate of 4.0 percent.

It saw Brazilian GDP growing 5.9 percent this year.

The ECLAC lowered its estimate for 2009 growth in Mexico to 0.5 percent, the lowest rate in the region and down from its previous forecast for 2.5 percent growth, dragged down by the neighboring United States.

For 2008, the U.N. body said Mexico's economy would grow 1.8 percent.

"One would expect developing economies to begin to overcome the deepest phase of the crisis as of the second half of 2009 ... (given) the batch of measures applied by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks and fiscal policy measures," ECLAC said in the report.

"This is the relatively optimistic scenario for regional growth forecasts for 2009," it added. "However you cannot rule out a more pessimistic scenario in which recession continues. In this scenario, obviously the growth rate will be lower than forecast."

The ECLAC provided forecasts for 20 countries in the region.

It saw the strongest 2009 growth for Peru, at 5 percent, followed by Panama at 4.5 percent. It forecast 4 percent growth each in Uruguay and Cuba.

For a table with ECLAC's individual country forecasts please see [ID:nN18381262]. (Editing by Walker Simon).

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