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Gold futures - Weekly outlook: April 16 - 20

Published 04/15/2012, 06:42 AM
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Investing.com - Gold futures came under heavy selling pressure on Friday, giving up most of the week’s gains as growing concerns over rising Spanish borrowing costs and fears over China’s economic growth outlook prompted investors to shun riskier assets and move in to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery settled at USD1,659.25 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday. On the week, prices added 0.92%.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,613.55 a troy ounce, the low from April 4 and resistance at USD1,685.25, the high from April 2.

The cost of insuring Spanish government debt against default rose to an all-time high on Friday, after a report showed that Spain’s banks borrowed a record amount from the European Central Bank in March, underlining concerns about the health of the sector.

Spanish 10-year yields settled the week at 5.97%, after hitting the key 6.0%-level in early trade Friday, the highest since early December. Similar-maturity Italian yields increased to 5.52%, while Portuguese yields climbed to 12.56%.

There have been renewed concerns of further debt contagion in the euro zone in recent weeks amid fears Spain will be the next in the euro zone to require a bailout.

London-based industry research group GFMS said in a report Thursday that it expects gold prices to hit USD2,000 “before the year is out”, citing Spain’s debt woes.

The news prompted investors to shun riskier assets, such as stocks and industrial commodities, and flock to the relative safety of the U.S. dollar, which reduces the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

Although gold’s appeal as a safe haven is boosted during times of economic uncertainty, the euro zone’s debt crisis has done little to bolster appetite for the precious metal.

A weakening euro and stronger dollar have weighed on gold instead. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, strengthened 0.72% on Friday to end the week at 80.04.

Meanwhile, official data showed that the Chinese economy grew at the slowest pace in almost three years in the first quarter, fuelling concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

China’s gross domestic product grew by 8.1% in the three months to March, disappointing expectations for an 8.3% increase, after recording an expansion of 8.9% in the fourth quarter.

Earlier in the week official data showed that China posted an unexpected trade surplus in March, after imports dropped sharply, while consumer price inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3.6% in March.

However, prices continued to draw support from expectations of increased demand in top consumers India and China.

Data released earlier in the week showed that Hong Kong's gold exports to mainland China rose 20% percent in February from a month earlier. The Asian nation is expected to overtake India as the world's top gold consumer this year.

Elsewhere, one of India’s largest Hindu gold-buying festivals of Akshaya Tritiya starts on April 24. In addition, the wedding season has already started in some parts of India. Gold is an integral part of most Indian weddings.

The physical gold market in New Delhi was active this week after gold jewelers in the country ended a three-week strike on April 8 after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee pledged to reconsider newly imposed taxes on the precious metal.

The 21-day work stoppage crippled the nation’s gold market after the country announced a 4% import duty hike on gold and a 0.3% excise tax on most gold jewelry.

Gold prices were well supported earlier in the week, rising to a one-week high on Thursday amid hopes of more quantitative easing in the U.S.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery settled at USD31.49 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, retreating 1.2% on the week. Meanwhile, copper for May delivery tumbled 4.53% over the week to settle at a three-month low of USD3.617 a pound.

Copper prices plunged nearly 3% on Friday, weighed down by the disappointing Chinese economic growth data and amid indications Chinese demand for the industrial metal was slipping.

China's imports of copper fell 4.6% to 462,182 metric tons in March from 484,569 metric tons the previous month. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

The CME Group, which is the operator of the Comex, said late Friday that it will cut margins for silver and copper futures effective after the close of business on April 16.

The amount that speculators must keep on deposit for an initial account in silver futures was reduced 13% to USD18,900 from USD21,600, while the copper margin was cut to USD5,400 from USD6,750.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Monday’s U.S. data on retail sales. Gold traders will be closely watching U.S. data in the second quarter for clues as to the likelihood of a fresh round of monetary easing.

In addition Spain is due to auction 10-year government bonds on Thursday. The amount to be offered is to be announced on Monday.

Bond auctions have become key drivers of risk sentiment in recent months, as traders attempt to gauge the ability of indebted euro zone nations to fund themselves.

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