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WRAPUP 1-Medvedev urges faster crisis moves, rouble devalued

Published 01/11/2009, 10:23 AM
Updated 01/11/2009, 10:32 AM

(Wraps together stories on rouble, adds Medvedev)

By Conor Sweeney and Toni Vorobyova

MOSCOW, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Russia started the first trading day of 2009 with its 13th mini-rouble devaluation in two months on Sunday, and President Dmitry Medvedev urged a faster response to a crisis which could see the economy slide into recession.

The global economic slowdown and credit crunch have hit demand for Russia's exports, shaved over 70 percent off Moscow's bourses and left companies strapped for cash and cutting jobs.

Authorities responded with a gradual rouble devaluation policy and by pledging a $200 billion-plus rescue package for the economy and financial markets.

The initial response was swift, but issues have arisen over the money reaching the real economy.

"Many things have been implemented unjustifiably slowly," Medvedev told a meeting on the effects of the slowdown, adding that only 30 percent of the measures announced in October have been implemented, Itar-Tass news agency reported.

Officials and analysts warn that rising unemployment and a weakening rouble could lead to social unrest.

But, having spent over a quarter of its gold and forex reserves defending the currency in five months, Russia arguably has little choice but to continue devaluing it.

On Sunday, the first trading day of 2009 after a string of public holidays, the rouble weakened around 1.5 percent to 35.30 versus a euro-dollar basket. Against the dollar, it slumped beyond 30 roubles for the first time in over 5 years.

"For the next month or two the trend is clear, the population will continue to buy foreign currency, with everyone buying themselves a small slice of Russia's gold and forex reserves," said Maxim Oreshkin, analyst at Rosbank.

"The pressure is coming from the real economy."

LOOKING FOR SCAPE GOATS

Russian companies and citizens, mindful of the 1998 currency collapse, are converting money into euros and dollars, thus further pressuring the rouble. In November, retail rouble deposits fell 4 percent.

Although the popularity ratings of Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin remain very high, there are signs that the crisis is starting to take its toll on Russia's usually united political establishment and scapegoats may soon emerge. "It's understandable that at a time of crisis, some officials will play the role of scapegoats and if Putin is not available (for criticism), then other officials must be blamed for those decisions that are not implemented," said Nikolai Petrov, political analyst with the Carnegie Centre in Moscow.

Analysts also expect Russia's economic slowdown will spur severe social unrest in coming months.

The central bank's gradual rouble depreciation policy has been criticised by some analysts who favour a one-off move, but the regulator has stood by its decision.

"If we had crashed the exchange rate in one go, where is the guarantee that people would have believed us that we would not do it again?" Alexei Ulyukayev, the central bank's first deputy chairman told Vedomosti business daily on Sunday.

"A banker whom I respect ... told me that half the deposits in his bank are in foreign currency. But if we had (done a one-off devaluation) he would have had 80 or 90 percent in foreign currency."

The central bank sold $57.4 billion and 12.6 billion euros last month, roughly doubling November's interventions, data showed on Sunday, suggesting that the gradual rouble weakening policy had kept up bets on further depreciation.

Dealers estimated Sunday's interventions at over $2 billion.

Ulyukayev forecast that this year would bring rouble volatility in both directions, with rouble depreciation giving way to another bout of strength.

The one silver lining of slowing economic growth and a weaker rouble has been reduced inflationary pressure. Monthly inflation in December slowed to a four-month low of 0.7 percent. The 2008 figure of 13.3 percent was the highest since 2002, but lower than some had expected earlier in the year. (Additional reporting by Yelena Fabrichnaya and Andrey Ostroukh)

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