* Goldman Q4 EPS expected to fall to $3.76 from $8.20
* Trading volume may weigh; compensation eyed
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, Jan 19 (Reuters) - - Goldman Sachs Group Inc is expected to say on Wednesday that quarterly profit fell by roughly half, hit by the same adverse fixed income trading environment that slammed Citigroup Inc's results a day earlier.
Analysts on average expected fourth-quarter profit of about $3.76 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. That compares with a year-earlier profit of $4.79 billion after payment of preferred stock dividends, or $8.20 per share. Net revenue may fall 6 percent to $9 billion from $9.62 billion.
Goldman emerged from the recent financial crisis as it went in, as one of the most powerful but controversial U.S. banks.
Much recent attention has focused on its dealings with Facebook Inc, including a decision this week to limit a private offering of stock in the Internet social network company to non-U.S. investors, and ensure compliance with U.S. law.
Nonetheless, Goldman shares have held up far better than many rivals. Its shares closed Tuesday at $174.68, above where they were when the crisis exploded in September 2008.
"I'm expecting a pretty good quarter, but expectations have gotten up there as you can tell by the stock price," said Keith Davis, an analyst at Farr, Miller & Washington in Washington, D.C., which invests $710 million and owns Goldman stock.
"Fixed income trading may be off a bit as rates rose," he said. "But Goldman is more diversified than rivals in terms of trading, and equities, investment banking and asset management should look pretty good."
Goldman will for the first time show in the results how much it makes from trading and investing for its own accounts, part of a series of disclosure changes announced on Jan. 11.
Fixed income markets were unsettled in the fourth quarter by uncertainty over European sovereign debt and the impact of the Federal Reserve's $600 billion treasury-buying program.
Credit spreads narrowed, as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.3 percent from 2.51 percent.
M&A GAINS MAY OFFSET TRADING
In the last week, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co have reported weaker quarterly fixed income trading results, though JPMorgan's decline was smaller.
Goldman's results may signal what investors might expect when Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp report their quarterly results later this week.
Offsetting the impact from trading may be the pickup in merger and acquisition activity, as Goldman displaced Morgan Stanley as the top banking adviser in 2010. Goldman has ranked first in 13 of the last 14 years.
Much of Goldman's profit will flow to bankers and traders, in the form of lucrative year-end bonuses.
"I would expect Goldman, if it is sensible, to keep the compensation payout ratio pretty low relative to where it was historically, especially given the political pressures it faces," Davis of Farr, Miller & Washington said.
Goldman is also still paying a $500 million annual dividend to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc on $5 billion of preferred shares it issued in Sept. 2008. (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)