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Global Market Wrap:
Markets Dropping After Downgrades
Equity Futures: Dow -17.00. S&P -2.10. NASDAQ -1.00. Japanese Nikkei -40.00. German Dax +27.00
Stock markets were declining throughout Asia. The Japanese Nikkei was falling 53 points while the Australian S&P/ASX has declined over 60 points or 1.2 percent. For the Nikkei, more stocks were declining helping to drag the index lower for the fourth consecutive day. The declines come after Merrill Lynch lowered its outlook on the global semiconductor industry. Exporters and car manufacturers were declining at the start of the session with Mitsubishi Motors falling 2.46 percent and Nissan Motors dropped 2.66 percent.
Later in the session the Bank of Japan is expected to release the monetary policy statement and interest rate. We expect the Bank to remain on hold for the immediate future. The central bank has mentioned the need to remain vigilant concerning deflation which could hinder the economic recovery of the nation.
Trade Plan of the Day: TheLFB Trade Plan is USD/JPY, one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has lost 1.08 points or 0.91 percent during the session.
Overnight, the Japanese Nikkei has declined 53.76 points (0.56%) to 9,495.71. The Australian S&P/Asx has fallen 60.80 points (1.28%) to 4,684.20.
Crude oil was recently trading at $77.80 per barrel, higher by $0.34. The commodity is trading below the 20 day moving average.
Gold was recently trading higher by $1.20 to $1,143.10. The precious metal has found support near the 1130 area before moving higher nullifying any gains or losses for the day.
TheLFB Charting: Gold Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1152, and 1100. Looking for: Wave 5) top
Gold is currently trading 15 dollars below its latest 1152 highs, where a Long blue wave V, of a larger red wave 5) top, may be in place. If this is the case then the market should trade lower over the coming sessions. A break through the lower support line of our trading channel will signal for a Short move towards the 1100 support zone (wave IV area).
Any break of 1100 support will confirm a bearish reversal.
TheLFB Charting: S&P Futures Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1082, 1105, 1115, 1120. Looking for: Wave C top
S&P futures found a top around the 1112 area in this week; just 3 points below our pre-set 1115 target, where the Long, wave V), may be complete. We can clearly count five black waves up from the red wave B low, which suggests that wave C may be trading around the top.
After every five wave move, a three wave correction is expected, so a move lower on the S&P, near to the 1082 support zone should not be a surprise technically. If this follows through, traders may see some dollar buying in the near-term, which will pull the euro away from the major $1.50 level, at the same time that the 74.70 dollar index low holds. These markets are all inter-connected at the moment, with a 90%+ correlation between S&P and dollar index trade.
A bearish confirmation on S&P futures hits if there is a short breakout of 1082.
TheLFB Charting: EUR/USD Elliott Wave view
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.4800, and 1.5000. Looking for: Two scenarios
The EUR/USD pair made a strong retracement on Wednesday from the 1.4800 support region, near to wave B)/II) highs. The market however, is still trading below the 1.5000 philological level and 1.5062 yearly highs, which means that both scenarios presented below are valid.
First scenario
From this area, euro may start to trade higher again, through the 1.5062 zone, following the A), B), C) corrective count in red II/B shown on the 4 hour chart. To confirm this, the market needs to trade above the black wave B)/II) 1.5000 area, while the 1.4807 holds.
Second scenario
The market is still trapped in the bear channel, so move lower into the powerful short black wave III may easily follow through if the 1.4800 support zone fails to hold as support. Break of 1.4807 support will put 1.4630 zone in play.