www.thelfb-forex.com The Forex Trader Portal
Trade Desk Thoughts:
Ahead Of The ECB
Bullish: GBP/USD If 04:30 EDT Releases are positive
Bearish: USD/CAD on oil moving higher through 69.50
Straddle: Either side of USD/JPY
U.K. Service PMI numbers are expected to print at 53.9, up from 53.2, at 04:30 EDT.
The markets have absorbed a week of short-sided action that, as of Thursday, has not managed to turn into a short-sided rout. The Asian equity markets have had quite a haircut, but that is in-line with some excess that had been built up there recently. The European and U.S. markets have been contained in their order flows on Thursday with the German Dax holding 5330 support, and S&P futures moving off 990 to test the 1000 area in mid-morning European trade.
All is likely to go sideways ahead of the ECB rate decision at 07:45 EDT, the timing of which follows the Chicago futures market re-alignment of oil and gold fixings from London, and the re-setting of the day's LIBOR rate, the benchmark that sets inter-bank rates for the day. It seems that few expect anything other than a rate hold from the ECB, but many will be listening for signals that ECB staff are seeing threats of inflation. However, with increasing unemployment tugging on the green shoots of recovering being seen in the output figures recently, the market is very likely to play tug-o-war with euro valuations.
The EUR/USD makes up nearly 60% of the dollar index, and a reaction from the market on Thursday that sends the pair higher will also likely allow speculative interest in oil up. Long oil allows equity players to stretch their legs going long, and that may end up in a test of 1000 on the S&P. U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims are thrown into the mix at 08:30 EDT, followed by 10:00 EDT ISM Non-Manufacturing reads. Thursday, of all days, could be the instigator for a long equity play, if macroeconomics unfold as expected.
Oil is moving higher off a test of $68.00, gold is holding $975, European markets have created a swing point low on the Dax that is holding 5280, and S&P futures really do look to have run out of near-tern determined sellers at 990.