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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: March 21-25

Published 03/20/2011, 10:04 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the Australian dollar trim losses, pulling back from a 15-week low as risk appetite recovered after the Group of Seven nations intervened in foreign-exchange markets to curb the yen’s record gains.

AUD/USD hit 0.9702 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since December 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9956 by close of trade on Friday, slumping 1.7% over the week.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.9702, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0105, the high of March 15.

On Friday, the G7 group of nations intervened in the currency market to weaken the yen and support Japan’s economy in the wake of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and the subsequent nuclear crisis it triggered.

Earlier in the week, Australia’s currency plunged amid concerns that the disaster in Japan would create a drag on economic growth and prompt an interest-rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Japan is Australia’s second largest trading partner.

Also last week, the minutes the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 1 meeting showed that policymakers saw slower borrowing by households and businesses as offsetting a mining investment boom when they decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

In the week ahead, the yen’s movements will continue to be the main focus for markets. Also next week, the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke is to speak while the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish its financial stability review.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 21

The U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Tuesday, March 22

In the U.S., the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher is to deliver a speech in Frankfurt; his comments will be closely watched for clues to future monetary policy.

Wednesday, March 23

The U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health. In addition, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke is to deliver a speech at a public engagement; his comments will be closely watched for any clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, Australia is to publish an index of leading economic indicators, designed to predict the future direction of the economy.

Thursday, March 24

The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production as well as data on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data.

Later in the day, the Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish its financial stability review, an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability.

Friday, March 25

The U.S. is to round up the week with final data on its fourth quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, RBA Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey is to speak at the Basel III Conference, in Sydney. His public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts.


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