On Wednesday, Northern Trust Corporation's stock (NASDAQ:NTRS) was downgraded by Goldman Sachs from Neutral to Sell. The investment firm also reduced its price target for the bank's shares from $84.00 to $82.00. The adjustment comes amid concerns over potential downside risks to the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates and growth algorithm.
Goldman Sachs pointed to recent shifts in rate expectations as a key factor influencing their decision. They believe that Northern Trust is now more vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations due to the high percentage of its gross interest revenues tied to floating rate assets.
These assets are expected to reprice with lower short-term rates, which could negatively affect the company's net interest income (NII). Goldman Sachs' projections for NII in 2025 and 2026 are 6% and 10% below the Street's expectations, respectively.
The bank's balance sheet repositioning earlier in the year has made it one of the more asset-sensitive firms under Goldman Sachs' coverage. This sensitivity, combined with the firm's securities portfolio dynamics and the nature of its deposits, could drive negative outcomes into 2026.
Despite Northern Trust's focus on expense management, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the company's margins could remain stagnant or potentially compress over the next two years due to the expected lower NII.
Goldman Sachs also notes that Northern Trust has historically had difficulty achieving sustainable operating leverage. The bank's strategy of aligning expense growth with fee growth, rather than overall profitability, suggests that any changes in NII will likely have a significant impact on the bottom line. This is expected to result in flat EPS growth for Northern Trust, with earnings power remaining around $7 per share, which is below consensus estimates for 2025 and 2026.
In terms of valuation, Northern Trust is trading at 13 times next twelve months' (NTM) price-to-earnings (P/E), which is above its peers—Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK) at 12 times and State Street (NYSE:STT) at 10 times. Given the less favorable EPS growth outlook, Goldman Sachs believes that Northern Trust's stock is less likely to maintain its P/E premium over its competitors.
In other recent news, Northern Trust Corporation has made significant changes in its leadership structure, effective October 1, 2024. The reshuffle, part of the company's One Northern Trust strategy, includes Peter B. Cherecwich assuming the role of Chief Operating Officer, Teresa Parker continuing as President of Asset Servicing, and Steven L. Fradkin becoming Vice Chairman. Jason Tyler will transition from Chief Financial Officer to President of Wealth Management, while David W. Fox Jr. will step into the Chief Financial Officer role.
In the financial realm, Northern Trust reported strong earnings for the second quarter of 2024, with a net income of $896 million and earnings per share at $4.34. This growth was fueled, in part, by a significant pre-tax gain from the Visa (NYSE:V) Class B common stock exchange and solid fee growth in Wealth and Asset Management. The company also reported an increase in assets under custody and administration.
Despite facing competitive pressures in the wealth management business, Northern Trust remains committed to long-term growth and resilience. The company is investing in business resilience and technology infrastructure, funded by the monetization of Visa shares. As a part of this strategy, Northern Trust plans to continue investing in technology infrastructure and resiliency.
InvestingPro Insights
While Goldman Sachs has expressed concerns about Northern Trust's earnings and valuation, it's important to consider additional data points that provide a broader view of the company's financial health. According to InvestingPro data, Northern Trust has a market capitalization of $18.29 billion and is trading with a P/E ratio of 12.5, which is below the 13 times NTM P/E ratio mentioned by Goldman Sachs. This indicates a more favorable valuation when considering near-term earnings growth.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that despite weak gross profit margins, Northern Trust has a strong history of maintaining dividend payments, with a track record of 54 consecutive years. This demonstrates a commitment to returning value to shareholders. Moreover, analysts predict the company will remain profitable this year, with profitability sustained over the last twelve months.
Investors may also note that Northern Trust's stock is trading near its 52-week high, with a price that's 97.73% of this peak. This could reflect market confidence in the company's performance. Additionally, the company's revenue growth over the last twelve months was 12.39%, indicating solid top-line expansion.
For those seeking more detailed analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips on Northern Trust, providing a comprehensive investment perspective. Access to these tips can be found at https://www.investing.com/pro/NTRS, offering a deeper dive into the company's financial metrics and future outlook.
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