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FOREX-Dollar rises vs yen, lifted by US Treasury yields

Published 02/09/2011, 09:43 AM
Updated 02/09/2011, 09:48 AM

* Dollar/yen lagging rise in U.S. Treasury yields

* Moody's statement weighs on yen

* Markets await Bernanke testimony (Recasts, updates prices, adds quote, changes byline, dateline from previous LONDON)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen on Wednesday, lifted by the recent rise in Treasury yields on hopes of an improving U.S. and global outlook.

U.S. Treasury yields have moved higher across the curve in the past week amid signs of a broadening U.S. recovery and positive comments on the economy from Federal Reserve officials. The move tends to support the dollar against the yen.

Two-year yields have risen about 30 basis points over the last week.

More gains for the dollar are seen in the near term, especially against the yen, analysts said, especially since the dollar/yen has lagged the increase in Treasury yields. At current two-year yields, analysts see the dollar trading between 88-89 yen.

"There has been a significant divergence between the U.S.-Japanese two-year bond spread and dollar/yen ongoing for several weeks," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

"Today dollar/yen has finally started to shift higher. This move is not yet complete, and (we) are biased to be long dollar/yen in the near term."

In early New York trading, the dollar gained 0.2 percent to 82.47 yen, recovering from a fall to 81.77 yen on Tuesday. Hedge funds were said to be buyers of the currency pair overnight, with traders citing stops above 82.70 yen.

A break through 82.95 yen, the initial trendline resistance, will trigger a bullish signal on dollar/yen and open upside potential toward 85.00 yen, BNP Paribas said in a research note.

Further weighing on the yen was a statement from Moody's on Wednesday, warning that a lack of success on fiscal reform would have a negative impact on Japan's credit rating.

The euro rose against the dollar in volatile trading, boosted by central bank buying to diversify their reserves. It last traded at $1.3662, up 0.2 percent on the day.

Near-term support lies at $1.3538, the 100-day moving average, followed by $1.3480, the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the January-to-February euro rally. Some traders saw resistance at $1.3811, the opening price on Feb. 3.

Earlier, the euro fell after sources told Reuters Bundesbank head Axel Weber would not be a candidate to replace Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank.

Weber, who had been considered a front-runner to succeed Trichet when his term expires in October, is regarded as a hawk on inflation, but often finds himself in the minority.

"He had a fairly hawkish line, and these views may not have reflected the ECB's, and have not helped him," said Steve Barrow, head of G10 currency research at Standard Bank.

"This news has come as a surprise to many, which is why the euro dipped. But it has held reasonably well, which suggests there is underlying support."

Investors awaited testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, due at 10 a.m. EST (1500 GMT), before the U.S. House Budget Committee. This is the first time Bernanke will be facing a Republican majority generally viewed as more hostile to the Fed.

"Aside from an expected warning from Bernanke regarding the extension of U.S. debt limits, the market will also look for any change of tone in Bernanke's assessment of the U.S. economy," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX research at GFT in New York.

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