Release Explanation: A statistic researched, recorded and reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics intended to represent the total number of paid U.S. workers of any business. The report excludes the following employees:
The NFP impacts the Market with huge volatility because of the constant revisions to the previous reporting periods. The accompanying Employment % number tends to be much more reliable in its monthly report. The Average Hourly Earnings will add to, or contain the impact of the number of jobs created. These 3 components go to make for explosive NFP Fridays.
Outside of the Interest Rate Statement, this is the most important guide for US$ Traders planning for the weeks and months ahead as the Labor Market will indicate the potential strength of future economic growth. A strong economy usually equates to a strong currency.
Outside of the Interest Rate Statement, this is the most important guide for US$ Traders planning for the weeks and months ahead as the Labor Market will indicate the potential strength of future economic growth. A strong economy usually equates to a strong currency.
Trade Desk Thoughts: November's loss of 533k jobs and the revisions to the October total brought the total amount of jobs lost in 2008 to over 1.8M, with 853k of those over the last two months. The pace of job losses was the fastest in nearly 34 years. The household survey fell by 673K and the unemployment rate, at 6.7%, is the highest in 15 years.
By a broader measure of employment, labor-market conditions are even worse than the headline number suggests. When marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers are included (workers who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time work), the rate of unemployed or underemployed workers reached 12.5% last month, up 0.7 percentage point from October.
Average hourly earnings increased $0.07, or 0.4%, to $18.30. Though a slightly faster gain than expected, that was still up just 3.7% from a year earlier, suggesting the economic downturn is making it harder for workers to demand higher wages, further restraining household spending.
"The accelerating pace of job losses indicates the Fed will lower rates another 50 basis points later this month," said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. "It also means the Fed will have to use more radical measures, such as declaring a conditional monetary policy."
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures plunged after the report was released. USD/JPY first rose and then fell below 92. The yen crosses were declining steeply and the dollar gained on the higher-yielders as risk was further unwound.