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Nikkei drifts lower, eyes on data and election

Published 08/25/2009, 02:41 AM
Updated 08/25/2009, 02:48 AM
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* Nikkei slips 0.8 percent, exporters drag after rally

* Investors eyeing U.S. housing data, Japan election

* Fall in Shanghai shares dampening buying interest

* Turnover volume ties Monday's one-month low

By Elaine Lies

TOKYO, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average drifted lower on Tuesday, hit by profit-taking after surging 3.4 percent the day before, with investors finding few reasons to buy actively before Japan's Aug. 30 election and U.S. economic data. Exporters lost ground after leading Monday's rally, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group fell in the wake of losses in U.S. peers after a veteran banking analyst said 150 to 200 more U.S. banks would fail during the banking crisis.

Market analysts say many expect Japan's opposition Democratic Party to gain power but investors remain hesitant about actively taking positions before they see the results. Some say the election has already become a neutral trading factor.

"We're basically seeing a profit-taking response to yesterday's rise, with investors waiting to see the U.S. housing data to reconfirm the strength of the economic recovery," said Noritsugu Hirakawa, a strategist at Okasan Securities.

"People are also reluctant to buy before the election."

The market will closely watch data out of the United States such as Case-Shiller home price indexes due later in the day for further clues about the progress of the economic recovery.

A fall of more than 5 percent in Shanghai shares, hit by profit-taking, also dented buying interest.

The benchmark Nikkei lost 0.8 percent or 83.69 points to 10,497.36. Total volume turnover was 1.3 trillion, basically tied with Monday -- which was the lowest since July 28.

The broader Topix slipped 0.5 percent to 965.11.

"There are still uncertainties out there, such as whether there will be more U.S. banking failures. But mainly I think investors are simply reluctant to buy at this level, feeling that Tokyo may be overpriced," said Tomomi Yamashita, a fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management.

Opinion polls show the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan set for a sweeping victory on Sunday that would end more than 50 years of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

A solid win for the Democrats would raise the chances of clearing a policy deadlock in parliament, where the opposition controls the upper house.

"If the Democratic Party were to win, a landslide victory would be better. Otherwise, policies would lack a specific direction," said Kazuhiro Takahashi, general manager at Daiwa Securities SMBC.

"Once a change in government becomes a reality, risks related to that change and the Democrats' ability to lead the country will be in focus."

Analysts said a new government was likely to draw foreign investors, long a key driver of movement in Tokyo shares.

"Foreign investors like change. Given that the current Aso government has lost support and the ability to get things done, a new government would be appealing," said Fumiyuki Nakanishi, a supervisor at SMBC Friend Securities.

BANKS DOWN, EXPORTERS DIP

No reaction was seen to news that President Barack Obama is due to nominate Ben Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Banks dipped after falls by their U.S. peers, hit by comments by banking analyst Richard Bove that perhaps 150 to 200 more banks will fail on top of the 81 so far in 2009, and that the industry's payments to keep the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp afloat could eat up 25 percent of pretax income in 2010.

Mitsubishi UFJ shed 1 percent to 592 yen, while No.3 bank Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group lost 1.2 percent to 4,040 yen and Mizuho Financial Group fell 1.8 percent to 225 yen.

Exporters dipped, with Canon Inc, the world's largest digital camera maker, slipping 1.1 percent to 3,680 yen.

Tokyo Electron shed 2.3 percent to 5,140 yen and Honda Motor Co declined 2 percent to 2,990 yen.

Toyota Motor Corp dipped 0.5 percent to 4,050 yen. The Asahi newspaper reported on Tuesday that the world's largest carmaker plans to raise its daily production level in Japan in November compared with a year earlier for the first time in 16 months, thanks to a recovery in demand.

NGK Insulators, a producer of insulators for power utilities and high-energy density batteries, bucked the trend, rising 3.7 percent to 2,270 yen after the Nikkei business daily said it had received 60 billion yen ($640 million) in orders from Abu Dhabi for rechargeable batteries to use in power systems.

Trade on the Tokyo Exchange's first section was 1.85 billion shares, down from last week's daily average of 2.1 billion.

Declining shares outpaced advancing ones by more than 2 to 1. ($1=94.00 Yen) (Additional reporting by Aiko Hayashi; Editing by Michael Watson)

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