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INTERVIEW-Equities in drivers seat for 2011 -C.Suisse

Published 01/19/2011, 08:42 AM
Updated 01/19/2011, 08:44 AM

* C.Suisse overweight equities, underweight govt. bonds * Says investors still cautious about equities * Emerging mkts still far away from bubble

* Global economy faces risk of U.S. govt. debt sell-off

By Dinesh Nair

DUBAI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Swiss bank Credit Suisse believes riskier assets such as equities may outperform in 2011 on the back of a recovery in the global economy and improving sentiment.

Investors have lifted their overweight equity positions to the highest since July 2007 and cut bonds as they are increasingly confident of higher economic growth without interest rate rises, a survey showed on Tuesday.

"In our asset allocation, we are overweight on riskier assets," Lars Kalbreier, managing director and global head of equity and alternatives research at Credit Suisse said in an interview in Dubai.

Kalbreier said balance sheets of non-financial companies operating on a global scale in the United States and Europe were probably at their best in the last 50 to 60 years, while market valuations were not reflecting the strong performance in earnings and sales.

"We like US equities as they are less expensive. The large international companies and large brands in the US are doing very well," Kalbreier said.

However, key valuation indicators such as price-to-earnings multiples of these companies are lower than what they were a year ago, he said. A Reuters poll in early December showed the U.S. S&P 500 was expected to rise by a median 8.3 percent by the end of 2011, Britain's FTSE 100 by 8.5 percent and Germany's DAX by 8.9 percent.

GLOBAL RISKS

Among the risks that may derail a global economic recovery in 2011, the executive highlights a sell-off in U.S. treasury debt as the most dangerous as rising yield may create a vicious cycle forcing home buyers to refinance at a higher rate there by leading to more bank defaults.

"What happens if investors lose faith in the capacity of the US government to repay its debt?" he said.

"The US hasn't shown any comprehensive plan to address the long-term debt issue. If you look at the Euro zone they have been forced to address the concerns in the market."

Short-term interest rates in the U.S. has remained at near-zero levels as the central bank continues a policy of monetary accommodation to steer the economy away from deflation and reduce unemployment levels.

That trend is likely to continue, Kalbreier said, probably for the whole year, and hence flows to emerging markets may remain at a steady pace in the year.

"Part of the strong growth in world economy will continue to be driven by emerging markets where we expect an economic growth of 7 to 8 percent," he said.

Kalbreier expects global economy to grow by roughly 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent in 2011. (Reporting by Dinesh Nair; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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